President Donald Trump And other senior managers of the White House spent the last days to slow down the Americans for a potential economic slowdown which, according to them, will then lead to a stronger growth to come.
With fears that prepare for the Impact of the potential priceTHE slowdown in the labor market And the indicators underlined possible negative growth in the first quarter, the president and his main lieutenants provide a mainly optimistic perspective soaked with warnings on short -term barattage.
“There is a transition period, because what we do is very tall,” said Trump on Sunday on Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”. “We bring the wealth in America. This is a great thing. … It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”
When asked if he thought that a recession is imminent, Trump said: “I hate to predict things like that.” He added later: “Listen, we are going to have disturbances, but we agree with that.”
US President Donald Trump has gestures while walking up to climb a navy One, while leaving the White House on the way to Florida, Washington, DC, United States, March 7, 2025.
Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters
The comments arise during a tumultuous period for the markets, with actions rolling continuous roller coaster depending on the news of the day. Major averages slipped on MondayWith the most recent insurance of the White House not doing much to appease the nerves of the Janglé market.
While Trump used Wall Street as a continuous barometer of his progress during his first mandate, he discouraged by making a criterion this time.
“What I have to do is build a strong country,” he said. “You can't really watch the stock market.”
“ A detoxification period '' of expenses
An emerging theme of the administration is that any slowdown or reversal of growth is a heritage of the predecessor of Trump, Joe Biden, and his recovery supplied indebted and deficit. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, called for a “rebalancing” of the economy far from the tax and monetary generosity.
“There will be a natural adjustment while we are moving away from public spending at private expenses”, ” Bessent said on Friday On CNBC. “The market and the economy have just become hung and we have become dependent on these public expenses, and there will be a period of detoxification.”
This adjustment could happen as soon as possible.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve followed closely Gdpnow The gauge of incoming economic data follows a 2.4% drop in the growth rate in the first quarter. If he holds up – the measure can be volatile, especially at the beginning of the quarter – it would be the first trimester to become negative in three years and the biggest warming from the cocovio pandemic.
The director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett, in an interview on Monday with CNBC, qualified the GDPNOW Outlook “a metric of the inheritance of President Biden” and “a very temporary phenomenon”.
“There are many reasons to be extremely optimistic about the economy in the future,” he said. “But for sure, this quarter, there are brips in the data, including the negative GDPNOW, which is linked to both Biden's inheritance and certain synchronization effects that occur before the prices.”
Speaking on Sunday at “Meet the Press” of NBC ,,,, “ The commercial secretary, Howard Lunick, said: “There will be no recession in America. … If Donald Trump brings growth in America, I would never bet on the recession, no chance.”
Are worried about jobs and consumer
A big mover for the Fed model was a Increase in trade deficit For a record of $ 131.4 billion in January, partly the product of gold imports and companies stored before the prices.
However, there are also increasing concerns about consumer spending after a decline in January. Consumer activity represents more than two -thirds of GDP, so that any new decline is added to concern.
At the same time, a decent title The gain in the payroll in February of 151,000 Massé certain underlying points for the economy.
While the commonly quoted unemployment rate has not just dropped up to 4.1%, the so-called real rate which measures discouraged workers and those part-time at work, but who prefer to have full-time jobs have climbed to 8%, half a percentage at the highest level since October 2021.
The increase occurred while the roles of those who occupied part -time jobs for economic reasons increased by 460,000, a leap of 10% at the highest level since May 2021. The majority of the decision in the category came from those who cited working or business conditions. In addition, the level of those related to full -time work fell by 1.2 million while partial times increased by 610,000.
The veteran of the Jim Paulsen market, former economist and strategist of Wells Fargo and other companies, noted in A substitution post that the labor market is approaching the “dropout speed” and that the gains in the real unemployment rate comply with a recession, although it is not necessarily its forecasts.
The ascent, he wrote, “highlights growing stress on the American job market. In addition, this is another indicator that will make recession fears among investors and stimulate concerns about a potential bear market.”
Few economists at Wall Street expect a recession. Goldman Sachs, for example, reduced its GDP prospects for 2025 to 1.7%, down the percentage half-point compared to previous forecasts, while increasing the probability of a recession by 12 months to only 20%, against 15%.
Trump administration officials insist that the current flexible patch, including tariff uncertainty, is part of a broader strategy.
“What we are doing is that we build a huge base,” Trump said on the Fox Show.
