This combination of photos created on April 09, 2025 shows that the envoy of the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, after a meeting with Russian officials at the Palais Dériyah, in Riyadh, in Saudi Arabia, on February 18, 2025 (L); And the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, addressing AFP during an interview with the Iranian consulate in Djeddah on March 7, 2025.
Evelyn Hockstein | Miscellaneous bitter | AFP | Getty images
Dubai, the United Arab Emirates – talks between the administration of the American president Donald Trump and the Iranian government on a renewed potential nuclear agreement began on a positive note during the weekend, said representatives of the two countries, despite sustainable collision points and a lack of clarity on the specific conditions held by each side.
In particular, there was more optimism towards an agreement and the overall communication between longtime opponents. Delegates from the United States and Iran have agreed to hold more talks next week in Rome, while the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the negotiations on Saturday as having taken place in a “constructive atmosphere and based on mutual respect”.
This highlights the gaping difference between the Biden administration's attempts to relaunch the 2015 nuclear agreement and the position in which the Trump administration is today: one with radically modified advantages for Washington and a much lower and more vulnerable Iran.
“The Iranians are, I think, a little more desperate than they were in 2022, and they are faced with a very low economy,” Gregory Brew, principal analyst on Iran and energy at political, told CNBC.
“The regional position of Iran has been considerably weakened. They are concerned about the quantity of stress they can manage – their internal position, the situation of internal dissatisfaction should probably get worse. They therefore have the interest of obtaining an agreement as soon as possible, and Trump gives them – or potentially give them – an opportunity to obtain such an agreement.”
Biden was also forced by public opinion, noted Brew, risking criticism of appearing “sweet” on Iran. Trump does not face these same limits, he said-the president is already considered an Iranian hawk and sanctions of “maximum pressure” reparaced on the country shortly after having entered.
The Iranian economy has deteriorated dramatically in the years that followed Trump's resumption in 2018 of the MultiCountry agreement, officially entitled the full action plan, or the JCPOA. The agreement was negotiated in 2015 as well as Russia, China, the EU and the United Kingdom under the Obama administration to curb and rigorously monitor Iran's nuclear activity in exchange for the relief of the sanctions.
Already confronted with several years of protests, to considerably weaken the currency and a cost of living for the Iranians, the Islamic Republic was struck by the hammer blow of lose your main ally in the Middle East Last year, when the Assad regime collapsed in Syria. Israel of the Arc de Tehran, Israel, has awaiting most of the senior management of Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy in Lebanon.
The supreme Iranian chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was previously firmly opposed to negotiations with the United States, but senior Iranian government officials would have launched a coordinated effort to change your mind, Supervised the decision as essential to the survival of the regime.
What type of “nuclear program” are we talking about?
Trump has done is clearly clear that he will not accept an Iran with nuclear arms. The past few years have increased the challenges: since Trump has retired from the JCPOA, Iran has enriched and stored uranium at its highest levels, which prompted the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear guard dog, to issue many warnings.
“Iran remains the only non -nuclear weapon state enriching uranium at this level, which raises important concerns concerning the potential development of weapons”, UN press release From March 3, read.
Tehran insists that his program is only for civil energy purposes, but the nuclear enrichment of Iran has reached 60% In the 2015 nuclear agreement, and a short technical step compared to the level of quality of arms quality of 90%.
Trump has repeatedly warned an American military response if Iran does not change the course of Washington's satisfaction.
“I would like an agreement concluded with Iran on non -nuclear. I would prefer this to bomb hell,” said the American president in early February in an interview with the New York Post.
This pressure clearly had an impact on Tehran's desire to come to the table, explains Ryan Bohl, senior analyst in the Middle East and North Africa at Rane Network.
“I think that Iranians are impatient to develop an feasible framework that will allow prolonged negotiations that would predict the military action that President Trump certainly suggested could come in a few months,” said Bohl.
“In addition”, he added, “the Iranian economy could use any suggestion of relief to improve conditions on the ground, which would in turn improve public support for the Islamic Republic.”
However, the specific parameters of a potential agreement have not yet been discussed, and other talks will reveal the extent of the differences between the position of each country.
The main one among the remaining collision points is the fact that Iran does not want to abandon its nuclear program – is a red line for Tehran, said its leaders. But exactly what type of program can be something on which the Trump administration is willing to show flexibility, as long as Iran cannot really develop a bomb.
Subsequent discussions will have to reveal Trump's conditions, which have so far been held under the Wraps.
“In the end, I think that the key to these negotiations was always going to be around what the United States demands towards Iran,” Nader Itayim, editor of the Gulf of the Middle East in Argus Media, said on Monday in CNBC.
“Do the United States seek to completely dismantle the Iranian nuclear program, or is it only a question of ensuring verification to ensure that there is no armament of this program?”
“I think Donald Trump has been very clear in the last two, three weeks in particular: no armaments. Armament is that red line,” said Itayim. “Iranians can work with this – they have always said and said that we were not after nuclear weapons. So it was a good starting point.”
The deep distrust remains between the two parties, and the Iranian Hawks – in particular, the United States Ally Israel – are unhappy that negotiations occur and oppose any potential flexibility of the Trump administration.
On Wednesday, a few days before Iran's American talks in Oman, Trump said that Israel would be the “chief” of a potential military strike against Iran, if his government does not abandon its nuclear weapons program.
