There is an old adage in baseball that says: “Pay the players before they occur.” And in the first three weeks of the MLB 2025 season, we saw several teams secure young members of their long -term nucleus. While some – like the padres star Jackson Merrill and the recruit of the Red Sox from Boston, Kristian Campbell – were pre -arbitration players with a short time of service, others – like Ketel Marte, Garrett Crochet and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – were worn by market value similar to what they have received on the free market.
But when it comes to comparing contract extensions, it is important to note that an agreement may not have an impact on other agents or free players in the same position of how we are used to thinking. To determine the market of a player, we tend to search for comparable offers from players in a similar level depending on age, position and past performance. Often, this is useful for establishing a reference base, but with young superstars, these comparisons do not always work.
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Extension of $ 500 million in Guerrero to 1400 million dollars The Toronto Blue Jays stands out among this year's signatures as the third contract by total value in the history of the MLB. Consequently, when it comes to using this affair as a composition for the other first players, we must be careful. Guerrero does not define the basic line for his basic comrades because with young superstars, the position does not make sense. They exist in a separate and higher level, a class of contract which is their own.
Other recent examples of this are $ 340 million from Fernando Tatis Jr., $ 340 million with the Padres of San Diego and Bobby Witt Jr. in 11 years and $ 288.8 million with the Kansas City Royals. In these cases and many others, the players never reached the free agency, because their teams obtained all their first years and beyond with long-term extensions before the end of club control. These two young elite talents did not lift the soil for their position groups, but they increased the gain in gaining their superstars compatriots.
When you see an agreement like the one signed by Guerrero, a first goal player, it is natural that your mind goes to the first goal player of the Pete Alonso dishes. Alonso, who agreed with dishes this winter on an agreement of $ 54 million over two years with an opt-out after 2025, had a very slow and limited free agent market. It is natural to think that Guerrero's agreement would increase the ground for Alonso – and all the other first players – if he decided to withdraw after this season and try the free agency again.
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But in addition to their shared position, the two could not be more distant. Not only is Alonso six years older than Guerrero, but they are also completely different players. While Alonon was one of the most prodigious power strikers in baseball, with the second largest number of circuits in baseball since he made his debut in 2019, Guerrero is a much better and more well balanced, reduced .288 / .363 / .498 in his career compared to the 251 / .342 / .518 of Alonso.
And while the first basic player in the dishes is a proven racing producer, Guerrero already has two first top-six in the vote of the MVP of Al, especially in second place behind Shohei Ohtani in 2021.
Now that does not mean that Alonso is not a good player. Defensively and on the basic frames, while the eye test gives the advantage to Guerrero, Alonso has in fact better classified the DR and BSR in recent years. However, the reality is that its gain potential is very different from that of Guerrero, even if they play the same position. Guerrero lies in this young level of superstar; Alonso does not do so.
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A better Comp Pour Guerrero could be the right field player Cubs Kyle Tucker. Tucker, who was exchanged in Chicago, this last off -season and will be a free agent at the end of 2025, is online to be the best player available next winter now that the Toronto superstar is out of the market.
Tucker, 28, is much closer to Vlady's age and exists in this high level of superstar on the market. Since its beginnings in 2020, the Voltueur des Cubs has been ranked eighth in WRC +, ninth in stolen bases and 11th at war. The All-Star three times was one of the best players from five MLB taboos, with 32 defensive points at the top of the league saved in the same period. Without forgetting, he was champion of the World Series in 2022 with the Astros.
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With his talent, the youth and the distinctions separating him from most of the free agents of next winter – and most of his outdoor field companions – Tucker will also be in demand as any free agent, and he will be able to take along the lines of Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and Juan Soto, who were in an age group and a similar superstar when they reached the free agency.
The bases laid down by the Guerrero agreement certainly help the superstar of the cubs at the following off -season. And just as Guerrero's agreement benefits Tucker – rather than his position group – expect the future Mega -Deal de Tucker to increase the soil mainly for the next young superstar who comes after him.
