Why the EU is preparing for reprisals as it is negotiating with the United States

Good morning. Today, our commercial correspondent reports on talks on reprisal options against the United States if the negotiations on Donald Trump's prices fail to conclude an agreement, and our Berlin Berlin chief predicted the crucial vote of tomorrow on the formation of a German coalition.

We take a break during May 1. Ben Hall will be in your reception boxes on Saturday, and we will come back next week

Have a very long weekend.

List

After three weeks of unsuccessful talks on an agreement to withdraw American trade rates, the EU intensifies its plans to retaliate if necessary, writing Andy Bounds.

Context: American president Donald Trump warned the so-called “reciprocal” price On most of the world on April 2, reaching the EU with a rate of 20%. But then Trump The 10% reduced A week later, offering partners 90 days to make concessions to withdraw some.

Previously, the United States had already struck the block with 25% sectoral prices on steel and aluminum and cars, which remain in place. The officials say that the United States has not yet given clear indications of what measures could persuade Trump from dropping them – and preventing him from raising “reciprocal” rates.

The European Commission, which directs the commercial policy, now provides in the event of failure. The ambassadors of the Member States will be informed this evening about the next steps for possible reprisals, four diplomats told Financial Times.

They cannot take phones in the room, now standard for any discussion on American relations.

Diplomats expect a vast discussion at the moment and the difficulty in retaliation, with the emphasis for the moment on the establishment of a new list of goods, rather than on the services Like large technological platforms. EU prices on 21 billion euros in American goods, including Harley-Davidson motorcycles, poultry and clothes were paused Until July 14.

A diplomat said that the Commission would probably present a large action plan, because the Ministers of Commerce meet again on May 15. “It's a debriefing and the way to follow,” said another.

The main objective is to preserve the unit by maintaining a balance between the more bellisal member states who want to retaliate and those who want to prioritize talks, diplomats said.

Commerce commissioner Maroš Šefčovič held meetings with the American trade secretary Howard Lutnick, while the chief of the economy Valdis Dombrovskis met the secretary of the Treasury Scott bessent last week. But before Easter, Šefčovič informed the ambassadors that the prices were unlikely to be completely raised, and it was not clear if the American team wanted to lighten them at all.

Ambassadors will also discuss the effect of the Cups in the USAID and the 15% of the EU Minimum company taxwhich was criticized by the United States. A senior official said that there would be no imminent change to the tax.

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Great revelation

The Chancellor of Germany pending Friedrich Merz becomes forward on himself?

The chief of Christian Democrats (CDU) could not expect a crucial social democratic voting (SPD), nor that the Bundestag elected it to the Chancellery, to announce that his party comrade Monday, writing Anne-Sylvaine Chassany.

Context: the only viable in Merz coalitionThe SPD, today publishes the result of an electronic vote of two -week members on the government agreement.

In Berlin, the hypothesis is that a majority of 358,000 members of the SPD will support the agreement, paving the way to Merz to be elected Chancellor on May 6. But there is no plan B if the vote fails.

The management of the SPD hopes that the members will appreciate the chance to stay in power after the prightly fidget electoral defeat, as well as to reward its co-leaders Lars Klingbeil and Saskia Esken for successfully negotiations An infrastructure fund of 500 billion euros and the best defense and finance ministries.

They also count on the meaning of the responsibilities of their faithful: a no would force the two parts to the drawing board in the middle of enormous geopolitical and economic challenges.

Without a stable majority, Merz could be forced to lead a minority government, having excluded to team up with the extreme right Alternative for Germany (AFD)The second greatest political force in Parliament. This would plunge the greatest economy in Europe into great uncertainty.

But the SPD is far from a happy party.

Klingbeil and Esken have faced criticisms for not having learned from his worst electoral result since 1887. The SPD young wing, Jusos, said that she would reject the coalition agreement due to immigration, social and tax policies.

Despite his eagerness to start, Merz will probably remember his breath this morning, when the Treasurer of the SPD recovers the bulletins of the members.

What to look at today

1. The president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and other leaders and civil servants participate in the European People's Party of 2025 Congress.

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