00:00 President
What happens if the labor market is starting to roll? We continue to hear people say, well, these are just pre-tariff data. We must see the post-flower data. If we see the labor market riding, do you think that the Fed would potentially examine this part of their double mandate that the part of inflation?
00:21 President B
Thus, the speech of the president of the Fed Powell Chair on April 16, I think, I would point out as a very instructive in this point of view. Uh, said the first president Powell, we cannot have a strong and supported labor market without first prices. This kind gives you an index on their goal. RIGHT. The second thing, the president of the Fed Powell would say, we would look at how far we are far from our job and our inflation objectives, and on what time we could get back to it. And this is how we define politics appropriately. In theory, you will be much further from your inflation goals, uh, by calling this in the middle of this year of this year, if the prices come into force as planned and the objective of employment which remains to be seen. If there is a clear drop, uh, on the job market, you know, three, two to three months of large negative prints with corroborating data and unemployment claims and, you know, an increase in unemployment rates, of course, they will reduce. They will not be immune. But compared to the 2019 period of 2019, when the Fed could be preventive to resolve the risks downwards for the economy, it cannot do this this time due to the backdrop of inflation and the expectation of inflation, where inflation should go. So you know, they skate, they skate to the puck on inflation and do not necessarily skate towards the puck with regard to the labor market at this stage.
04:26 President
MHM.
04:47 President B
Yeah.
