US President Donald Trump (R) and Saudi assistant crown prince Mohammad Bin Salman Al-Saud participate in a bilateral meeting in a hotel in Riyadh on May 20, 2017.
Mandel and | AFP | Getty images
Dubai, the United Arab Emirates – American President Donald Trump, will lead to the Persian Gulf region – or as he could soon call him, the Persian Gulf – on May 13, for an official trip with stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
The issues are high, because the visits take place in the middle of turbulent geopolitical tensions. On the agenda, there will be discussions on the ceasefire of the War of Israel, oil, trade, investment agreements and the potential of new political developments in the fields of advanced semiconductor and nuclear programs.
“We expect to see a lot of announcements. And I also think that in a wide range of domains,” said Monica Malik, chief economist of Abu Dhabi on Friday. It noted the potential elimination of tariffs of 10% of Trump on aluminum and steel, which would be positive for the Gulf States, because some of them export these metals to the United States, although they only compensate for a small percentage of GDPs in countries.
Trump has long had a warm relationship with the Arab States of the Gulf, in particular the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, where his children have several commercial companies and planned real estate projects. These relations could strengthen the hands of countries when it comes to negotiating new commercial transactions – while lifting concerns among criticism of potential conflicts of interest, grants that the Trump family rejects.
During the initial mandate of the president in office, his first trip abroad was to Saudi Arabia – a country now welcoming the negotiations that Trump hopes that Trump will end the Russian -Ukraine war, making the kingdom increasingly important for Washington. Qatar, on the other hand, played a central role in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas on the ceases and the hostage outings.
Wall Street and Ai in the Gulf
The presidential visit attracts several titans of Wall Street and Silicon Valley to the Saudi kingdom. A Saudi investment forum announced this week and is expected to take place on May 13 in Riyadh will showcase guests, including the CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink, the CEO of Palantir Alex Karp and the CEOs of large companies like CitigroupIBM, Qualcomm,, AlphabetAnd Franklin Templeton, among others. The White House AI and Tsar Crypto David Sacks will also be present.
“We also expect to see many investment agreements during the announcement,” said Malik. “And in both directions, we have already seen the water announce a certain number of investments in the United States in fields such as AI, energy, aluminum, but we also believe that there will be opportunities for American companies to increase investments.”
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have invested massively in AI infrastructure in order to become world hubs for technology. Consequently, probably high-minded for these leaders is the future of American semiconductor exports, the most advanced which they have so far had no access due to National security concerns. But that could soon change.
Trump administration Wednesday announced his plan to cancel An AI “Diffusion rule” of Biden, which imposed strict export controls on advanced AI fleas, even towards nations adapted to the United States. The rule will be replaced by “a much simpler rule that unleashes American innovation and ensures the domination of the American AI,” a spokesman for the US trade department said on Wednesday, although the details of the new rule have not yet been shared.
The IA company of the state of water G42 has made efforts to align with American regulations, in particular the divestment of Chinese companies and the partnership with Microsoftwhich invested last year $ 1.5 billion in G42.
Nuclear ambitions
The Trump administration was actively engaged in talks with Iran about its nuclear program – talks for the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia expressed their support. This enthusiasm marks a striking contrast with the attitudes of these countries with regard to all the United States with Tehran during the Obama years.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia wishes its own civilian nuclear program and asked the United States the approvals and assistance in this direction. Any American support for a Saudi nuclear program was previously subject to the normalization of diplomatic relations from Saudi Arabia with us Allied Israel – but that could change during this visit, According to media relationships Quoting sources with knowledge of the question.
The United States Secretary, Chris Wright during a visit to the kingdom in April, said Saudi Arabia and the United States were on a “path” To a civilian nuclear agreement – but that any other announcement would come from Trump himself.
Israel-Gaza negotiations
Another major subject will be the future of Gaza. Trump promised to end the war, while suggesting controversial that the United States could take control of the gang ravaged by the war which he described as “important real estate”, comments that led to strong reprimands of Arab leaders.
The United States has continued to put pressure on cease-fire offers, more recently floating a 21-day cessation of hostilities and the release of certain hostages, while Israel has approved the fighting and territorial control in Gaza this week.
“We have not yet heard a full plan in the Arab world,” the founder of Branch Global Capital Advisors at Branch Global Capital Advisors yet on Friday at CNBC on Friday while discussing Trump's next visit.
“If we will see an answer that will be led by the Arabs, it's probably now or never,” said Branch. “I think it will be treated very gently behind the scenes … probably more a long -term geopolitical risk than any risk of immediate macro.”
Oil and financing
The branch suggested that the lifting of American sanctions against Syria under its new government could also be discussed. Meanwhile, reports that the Trump administration will announce a change of American name in the Persian Gulf in the Persian Gulf would be enthusiastically greeted by the Arab states, but could attract the severe anger of Iran at a time of delicate nuclear negotiations with Tehran.
Oil prices will also be developed; Trump has long pushed OPEC states, led by Saudi Arabia, to pump more oil to reduce prices for American consumers. For a combination of reasons, Saudi Arabia does precisely that – but it may have to change course in the coming months if the prices remain moderate, harming the revenues of the kingdom.
In this vein, funding will be an important element of the agenda for the Kingdom during the visit of Trump, according to Malik of ADCB.
Saudi Arabia is committed in November to invest $ 600 billion in the United States during Trump's mandate – but it also has high -level costs for its own Vision 2030 investment ambitions. The decline in world oil prices and public ticket spending projects have led to an extension of Riyadic budget deficits.
“With the oil prices in which they are, Saudi Arabia will examine more financial support from America and will seek to progress with their investment program,” said Malik.
