The stranded Soviet probe will soon crash on earth – and we do not know where

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A model of Kosmos 482, which was originally to go to Venus

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More than 50 years after its launch, a Soviet spacecraft called Kosmos 482 is about to return to earth. It was initially intended to land on the surface of Venus, but it began to collapse in low terrestrial orbit and never did it beyond. After decades by surrounding our planet on an oval orbit, it is finally about to return to the ground.

Kosmos 482 was launched in 1972, but due to secrecy during the Cold War period, little is known about its exact structure or mission. We only know that it was Directed for Venus Due to other Soviet missions that were focused on our neighboring world at the time and because the spacecraft seemed to try to get started on a trajectory there before it was in pieces. It is not clear which exactly caused the default of the spaceship, but three of the four fragments fell in New Zealand shortly after the launch.

The last fragment derived in a higher orbit, with its point closest to Earth about 210 kilometers and its more distant at around 9,800 kilometers. Over the years, the particles from the top of the earth's atmosphere have slowed down this piece, narrowing its path around the earth, and it was ultimately close enough to fall. It should go on May 9 or 10.

The remaining piece of the spacecraft, its landing capsule, is estimated more than a meter wide with a mass of almost 500 kilograms. Between its size and the probability that it was designed to survive a trip through Venus' warm and dense atmosphereIt seems likely that he will survive his intact descent and will hit the ground hard, more than 200 kilometers per hour.

It is impossible to predict where exactly the last piece of Kosmos 482 will break. Based on its current orbit, it could strike anywhere on earth between latitudes from 52 ° to the north and 52 ° south – an area which covers everywhere from South South Pointe to certain parts of Canada and Russia. Fortunately, despite this huge band of possible landing points, the probability that it strikes an inhabited area is low. “This is an infinitely small number,” said Marcin Pilinski at the University of Colorado Boulder in a statement. “It will most likely land in the ocean.”

Pilinski is part of a team that follows the debris. While he continues to get closer, the possibilities of the place and the moment when they land will shrink. Junk of space Falling on earth like this is not uncommon: about an object in orbit that NASA follows falls every day, and most burn in the atmosphere or strike the ocean. Kosmos 482 is just a particularly large and rustic unwanted space.

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