“One hundred percent”, this is how Donald Trump estimated the chances of concluding an agreement between the United States and the European Union, two of the world's largest economies.
“Oh, there will be a 100%trade agreement,” said Trump by receiving Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. “They want to make it a very, a lot, and we will conclude a commercial agreement, I expect it fully. But it will be a good deal.”
The need for an agreement has become a high priority for both parties, although for various reasons. For the EU, a way to avoid atrocious 20% tariff pain that Trump announced earlier this month, and later a break. For the United States, a way of calming the markets, reassuring anxious investors and winning a public relations victory.
The White House has shaped the 90 -day suspension like an opportunity window to do or break for other countries to go on a pilgrimage to Washington DC, to seek an audience with the American president and to find a compromise. The question of whether this compromise should be mutually or unilaterally beneficial has not yet been clarified.
Meloni's trip, the first by a European leader since the presentation of the so-called “reciprocal rates”, marked another chapter of this wave of diplomatic commitments. The day before, Trump had met a commercial delegation from Japan.
“Everyone is on my priority list,” said Trump.
The first Italian, who exploited her right -wing references to position himself as a bridge manufacturer between the two sides of the Atlantic, echoes optimism in the room and guest the president During an official visit to Italy.
“I am sure that we can conclude an agreement, and I am here to help on this subject,” she told journalists.
Meloni then made a sharp clarification which exposed inadvertently or otherwise the limits of his power.
“I cannot treat on behalf of the European Union,” she said.
As a member of the EU, Italy is part of a great customs union and a single market shared by 26 other nations. The same duties, quotas, preferences and sanctions apply through the common border, making the block a unified entity vis-à-vis trade partners.
In practice, this means that Germany cannot impose an import rate of 10% on a Chevrolet SUV, while Italy invoices half of this rate for the same product. It also means that Germany cannot agree with Japan to scratch the tasks of the other cars, while Italy does the same with the United States. The 27 member states are linked by the same rules and the same transactions.
The only one who can decide on the height and the weakness of the tariffs is the European Commission, has granted exclusive jurisdiction to manage the commercial and customs policy of the block by the founding treaties.
This provision quickly reduces the number of people that Trump can call to negotiate and secure the trade agreement he wants to only one name: Ursula von der Leyen. And yet, he has not met or discussed with the president of the committee since his return to the White House.
Clash of stories
Having Trump for the EU is well documented.
ADVERTISEMENTThe Republican has repeatedly denounced the block as a monopolistic force which, in his opinion, was formed to “screw” with the United States and refuses to buy American manufacturing goods. His insistence on what he likes European countries, as a distinct nations, only underlines his aversion to the EU as a project of political and economic integration.
“You are thinking of the very friendly European Union (like). They tear us away. It's so sad to see. It's so pathetic,” said Trump when he revealed his prices.
Brussels officials tried to demystify this story by pointing out the broader image: although the EU has a traditional surplus of goods with the United States, worth 156.6 billion euros in 2023, it has a considerable deficit of services, worth 108.6 billion euros. This reflects a more balanced relationship than that represented by Washington to justify his punitive rates.
Despite the billions at stake, the two parties have made little or no progress to avoid what could soon become a total and slowed down trade war.
ADVERTISEMENTThe lack of communication between Trump and Von der Leyen has become more and more visible and concerning each passing day.
Before its inauguration in January, the Von der Leyen team sought to plan A meeting between the two leaders, but the efforts have never given results. Transatlantic tensions began to increase shortly after Trump took office and launched his attacks on board the veranda against the sovereignty of Greenland and the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, causing consternation through the block and erect new obstacles in any diplomatic awareness.
Although Von Der Leyen continues to identify himself as a “great friend” from America and a “convinced Atlanticist”, she considerably hardened her tone in public.
“Europe is always a peace project. We do not have brothers or oligarchs who establish the rules. We do not send our neighbors, and we do not punish them”, ” She said The newspaper Zeit.
ADVERTISEMENTTrump-Von der Leyen Silence created a deep void at the highest political level, leaving extremely sensitive questions the hands of deputies who do not have the mandate to make crucial decisions.
Von der Leyen is now based on Maroš Šefčovič, the European Commerce Commissioner, who is sometimes accompanied by his chief of staff, Bjoern Seibert.
In recent months, Šefčovič has received several calls and meetings with its American counterparts: Howard Lutnick, the American secretary to trade, and Jamieson Greer, the US trade representative. Their last joint meeting took place in Washington only a few days after Trump announced the 90 -day break and von der Leyen responded in kind.
THE read out Since the trip of Šefčovič has repeated the EU offer of a “zero” tariff agreement on all industrial goods, which Trump previously rejected, and has mentioned subjects such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and global overcapacity in steel and aluminum.
ADVERTISEMENTNegotiations will continue at the technical level to “further explore the reason for a mutually advantageous agreement,” said a commission spokesperson.
This landing area, however, seems to be distant at the moment.
A source familiar with the talks told Euronews that the behind -the -scenes effort does not give the desired results and that the commission even fears that the White House can inform about the 90 -day opportunity window opened by Trump's suspension.
The specter of new prices on the pharmaceutical sector, which the American president has promised to impose, throws a dark shadow on the mission against the period.
ADVERTISEMENT“I think the United States has been slightly frightened by the impact of pharmaceutical prices initially because it had not evaluated the problems of the supply chain, but they may not wait for the negotiations,” said the manager, speaking on condition of anonymity.
With regard to technology, the Commission fears that the end of the game of America is to “dismantle the entire book of digital rules” introduced into the previous mandate, in particular the Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Digital Markets Act (DMA). Under these laws, the executive opened a probing chain In Meta, Google, X and Apple which can lead to heavy fines if companies are in non-compliance.
While Brussels insists that the investigations are completely separate According to the question of prices, the White House seems to think the opposite. Peter Navarro, a Trump loyalist who is a principal advisor for trade and manufacturing, has established a direct link between trade flows and digital regulations, assimilating the latter to the “law”.
The disagreements are so wide – and the apparently incompatible accounts – that there is a possibility that Šefčovič, Lutnick and Greer reach a provisional affair, but that it will not keep water and will not cross the line “because Trump and others in his inner circle will be abruptly changed, the official functioning.
ADVERTISEMENTEven if Von Der Leyen was to obtain the desired telephone call – or a face -to -face meeting – Trump's mercurial nature is likely to be an insurmountable obstacle for the experienced manager of consecutive crises.
“We are not in a hurry,” said Trump during the visit of Meloni, attenuating the chances of “100%” that he had predicted before.
When he was asked if he met Von Der Leyen, Trump simply said that his team had “many talks” with “other countries”, without any mention of the chief of the committee. He also defended his disruptive policies, declaring: “The prices make us rich.”
