By Luiza Ilie
Boracest (Reuters) – Romanians vote on Sunday in a new presidential election which could propel ultra -nationalists George Simion to power, a result likely to cause discomfort in the European Union and NATO and unstable investors.
The Hard Eurosceptic conducts opinion polls before the first voting round in the Member State of the EU and NATO, five months after the cancellation of the initial vote due to alleged Russian interference. Moscow denied allegations.
Simion hopes to benefit from general public anger in the face of cancellation after taking over from the far -right competitor Călin Georgescu, who exceeded the vote in the canceled voting bulletin but is now prohibited to run.
Simion, 38, opposes military aid to neighboring Ukraine, criticizes the management of the EU and supported the Make America movement again from US President Donald Trump. Christian Conservative, he supported a 2018 failed referendum intended to prevent the same sex couples from being able to marry.
A Simion victory could isolate Romania abroad, erode private investments and make the country a less predictable and cooperative member of NATO on military aid in kyiv, playing in the hands of Russia when she waged war in Ukraine.
“It is very clear that a strong anti-Western trend has been accumulated and that the path of Romania (direction) is at unprecedented risks,” said Cristian Pirvulescu, political scientist.
Simion questions about 30% in opinion surveys, giving it a comfortable advance on two centrists, but suggesting that he will not win enough votes to avoid a second round run on May 18 against the one who arrives in second position.
Its main electoral rivals are two centrists, former senator Crin Antonescu and the mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan.
Antonescu, 65, is supported by the three parts of the current pro-Western government. Dan, 55, presents himself as independent on a reform platform.
Both are pro-EU and NATO and Ukraine return. Antonescu would be likely to support the current government if he won the elections. Dan said he would promote a new pro-Western government.
The highest uncertainty
Many voters responded positively to Simion, who finished fourth in the original vote, then joined Georgescu, who faces accusations for his support for fascist groups and campaign funding issues. The electoral authorities also plan to finance the Simion campaign.
“He stood near the man who only wanted the best for this country, he showed honesty compared to other candidates and I hope he restores democracy in Romania by his actions,” said Vlad Popa, a 50 -year -old lawyer.
Some other voters are wary of Simion's youth and lack of political experience.
“I do not care about his beliefs, the problem … is that he is too young,” said the 80 -year -old Caravan retiree in the central village of Vasilati.
The president of Romania is limited to two five-year terms and has a semi-executive role which includes the commander of the armed forces and the presidency of the Security Council who decides military aid.
The president represents Romania during the summits of the EU and NATO, can veto the important votes of the EU and appoint the Prime Minister, the chief judges, the prosecutors and the heads of service.
JP Morgan said that an Antoneonescu victory would imply the status quo and that Simion's victory would carry the “greatest risk of adjusting the power coalition and therefore the greatest uncertainty”.
The new election election has blocked government efforts to reduce the largest budget deficit in the EU, which puts the country at risk of downgrading ratings at a lower level of investment.
The next president will have to navigate the economic benefits of a potential trade war and face pressure to increase defense expenses. The president is also likely to try to repair the fences with Washington after the members of the Trump administration criticized the decision to cancel the original ballot.
If it is elected, Simion said that he would make public “how much we contributed to the war effort in Ukraine to the detriment of subsidies for Romanian children and pensions for our elderly”.
Simion supported the restoration of Romania at its 1940 borders, which include territories now in Bulgaria, Moldova and Ukraine, and is prohibited to enter the last two.
(Report by Luiza Ilie, edition by Timothy Heritage)
