Cargo ships and containers from the port of Qingdao in the province of Shandong in eastern China on December 4, 2024.
Stringer | AFP | Getty images
The World Trade Organization warned on Wednesday that the prospects for global trade “have” strongly damaged “following the American president Donald TrumpPrice regime.
“The prospects for global trade have deteriorated sharply due to an increase in prices and uncertainty of trade policies,” the WTO said in its latest “global commercial and statistical prospects”.
On the basis of the prices currently in place, and including a suspension of 90 days of “reciprocal prices”, the volume of the global trade in goods should now decrease by 0.2% in 2025, before allocating a “modest” resumption of 2.5% in 2026.
The decline should be particularly steep in North America, where exports should drop by 12.6% this year.
The WTO has also warned that severe risk of decreases exist “, including the application of” reciprocal “prices and a broader overflow of the uncertainty of policies”, which could lead to an even more clear decline of 1.5% in the world trade in goods, “injuring in particular countries oriented towards exports and the least developed.
The recent tariff disruptions followed a strong year for global trade in 2024, during which the trade in goods increased by 2.9% and the trade in commercial services increased by 6.8%, said the WTO.
The new estimate of a drop of 0.2% of world trade for 2025 is nearly 3 percentage points below what it would have been in a “low rate” reference scenario, the WTO added, and marks a significant reversal from the start of the year when economists of the commercial organization expected a continuous commercial expansion supported by the improvement of macroeconomic conditions.
“The risks for forecasts include the implementation of reciprocal prices currently suspended by the United States, as well as a broader overflow of the uncertainty of trade policy beyond the trade relations linked to the United States,” said the WTO.
“If it is adopted, the reciprocal prices would reduce the growth of global trade in goods from 0.6 additional percentage point, posing particular risks for the least developed countries (LDC), while a propagation of the uncertainty of commercial policy (TPU) would lead to more than 0.8 percentage points.
President Donald Trump pronounces remarks on the prices in the Garden Rose of the White House in Washington, DC, on April 2, 2025.
Carlos Barria | Reuters
Trump amazed business partners and global markets in early April, when he announced a series of so -called reciprocal prices on imports of more than 180 countries. Beijing has been the hardest hit, American law on Chinese imports now totaling 145%. China in turn struck in Washington with reprisal prices Up to 125% on American imports.
The prices between China and the United States will probably lead to a “drastic contraction” of trade between the two, Ralph OSSA, chief economist of the WTO, said Silvia Amaro de CNBC on Wednesday.
The generalized market turbulence following the announcement of the prices caused a temporary rise by Trump, the president announcing last week that New rights to imports from most business partners would be reduced to 10% for 90 days in order to allow trade negotiations With Washington counterparts.
The WTO declared in its Wednesday report that the impact of recent trade policy changes should vary from one region to another.
In adjusted forecasts, North America now subcontracts 1.7 percentage points of the growth of the trade in world goods in 2025, which transforms the overall negative figure.
Meanwhile, Asia and Europe continue to contribute positively, but less than in the reference scenario, the contribution of Asia divided by two to 0.6 percentage points.
The disturbance of American-Chinese trade should “trigger a significant embezzlement of trade”, added the WTO, raising concerns among third markets concerning the increase in competition from China.
“Chinese goods exports should increase by 4% to 9% in all regions outside of North America, because trade is redirected. At the same time, American imports from China should fall sharply in sectors such as textiles, clothing and electrical equipment, creating new export opportunities so that other suppliers can fill the gap” Exports have pointed out that this could open the door to a less meaning for a little development for exhibitions.
Many WTO members have raised the question of the diversion of trade, said OSSA.
“But something that is really important to keep in mind is that it is a double-meaning street in a way, if you think of European companies, for example by trying to export cars to the United States, they also face a 25% rate now and they will also have to find new destination markets for these products.”, He not only is not only Chinese products in Europe for example, but also the need for new customers. “
OSSA added that it was important that these effects were managed cooperatively.
– Sophie Kiderlin of CNBC contributed to this report.
