A security guard is held outside the building near the signs announcing the International Monetary Fund / Spring meetings of the World Bank in Washington, DC, on April 17, 2025.
Jim Watson | AFP | Getty images
The International Monetary Fund provides that American prices will help reduce the country's budgetary deficit a touch in 2025, even if the prospects for American growth and inflation aggravate thanks to an intensifying trade war.
The 191-Pays monitor report published Wednesday projects the overall federal deficit of the United States to 6.5% of the gross domestic product this year, compared to 7.3% in 2024.
The closer gap between expenses and income is “subject to higher tariff income”, according to the report.
The level has been calculated on the basis of the IMF's “reference point” forecasts, which take into account the pricing announcements made on April 4.
In this context, the deficit is estimated at 5.6% of GDP in the medium term as income increases by 0.7%, according to the IMF.
Uncertain income
Admittedly, the report noted “the extent of the increase in pricing income is very uncertain”.
One of the warnings to reduce the projection of the deficit is the extent to which prices will exert downward pressure on imports in the United States, itself largely depends on the way in which consumers react at higher prices. This varies considerably according to the products, indicates the report.
In addition, “the prices calendar itself is uncertain and plays a crucial role,” continued the report.
The IMF has recognized another risk for its forecasts: if the prices lead to a broader slowdown in economic activity which could lead to a slowdown in other segments of tax revenue – such as income tax – which compensates for higher income from prices.
“These projections are very uncertain and do not take into account the measures under discussion at the Congress, under budgetary reconciliation”, according to the fund.
Yields on the 10 -year cash ticket has increased in recent weeks, the last exchange almost 4.40%, while higher prices have been announced, increased inflation forecasts and the dollar decreased.
If the total size of the American government's debt continues to rise, the IMF thinks that it will increase interest rates in the longer term and the cost of financing the debt.
“More specifically, an increase of 10 percentage points of GDP in American public debt between 2024 and 2029 could lead to an increase of 60 points within the 5 -year -old striker at a rate of 10 years,” wrote the IMF staff. A basic point is equivalent to 1 / 100th of percent, or 0.01.
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