According to Alfred Kammer, director of the planned European department, spending on higher German infrastructure will increase the economic growth of Europe in the coming years – but not enough to prevail over the expected trail of American rates.
The IMF WE,, United Kingdom And many Asian countries Due to President Donald Trump's volatile pricing policy.
The institution reduced its growth forecasts from the euro zone for each of the following two years by 0.2 percentage points, to 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.
“These are the prices and trade tensions that weigh on the prospects rather than on the positive effects on the budgetary side,” Kammer at Carolin Roth of CNBC said in an interview with Spring meetings of the FMI-World Bank last week.
“What we see is that we have a significant degraded for advanced economies in Europe … and for emerging countries in the euro region, double over this two -year period.”
The negative impact of the prices will be slightly offset by The recent infrastructure expenditure bill for GermanyThis will increase the growth of the euro zone during these two years, said Kammer.
Exemptions transmitted to Germany Longtime debt rules have released higher defense expenses allowed the creation of an infrastructure and a climate fund of 500 billion euros ($ 548 billion). This decision was described by economists As a potential “game changer” for the slower economy – the most important in the euro zone.
However, optimism has been shaken by American prices, which should largely mitigate global growth and trade flows.
Several decision -makers from the European Central Bank said to CNBC last week That even if the path of inflation seemed positive – with potentially reduced prices in the block – their wider perspectives were now much more uncertain.
The IMF Kammer said that the ECB should only reduce interest rates this year by a quarter of a point, despite the risk of growth.
The ECB has so far reduced the prices seven times by increasing percentage point increments, from June 2024. Its last lower movement in April has taken the deposit installation, its key rate, at 2.25%.
“We have a very clear recommendation for the ECB. What we have seen so far is a huge success in the disinflation effort and monetary policy has worked … So we expect to achieve the objective of 2% in the second half of 2025,” said Kammer to CNBC.
“Our recommendation is that there is room for a reduction of more than 25 basic points, in summer, then the ECB should contain that the policy rate of 2% unless major shocks were struck and that there is a need to recalibrate monetary policy,” he added.
On Monday, the prices of the night index swap highlighted market expectations for two more quarter -point discounts this year.
