Prices pose major winds for American and global economies, which led the International Monetary Fund to reduce its growth forecasts in 2025.
The deployment of President Donald Trump on April 2 of “reciprocal” prices not only shaken the actions – the S&P 500 has been down 9% since the launch of samples – but they have also triggered countermeasures from other business partners.
“It is a major negative shock for growth,” said the IMF in the summary of its global economic prospects of April 2025.
This new perspective includes a “reference forecast” for economic growth and global inflation, on the basis of the data available on April 4 – including reciprocal prices but excluding subsequent developments such as the 90 -day break on higher rates and the Smartphones exemption – And updates the previous perspectives that the IMF shared in January.
In its new projections, the IMF now predicts an American growth prospect of 1.8% in 2025, down 0.9 percentage compared to its January forecasts.
Although he does not yet call a recession in the United States, chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told journalists on Tuesday that the IMF now considered the 40% recession ratings, compared to 25% in October 2024.
The IMF also reduced its global growth forecasts to 2.8% in 2025, down 0.5 percentage compared to its previous estimate.
“The announcement of the Rose Garden of April 2 forced us to drop our projections – almost finalized at that time – and to compress a production cycle which generally takes more than two months in less than 10 days,” wrote chief economist Pierre -Olivier Gourinchas in the April report.
“The common denominator … is that prices are a negative tender shock for the economy imposing them,” he said.
Higher inflation forecasts for advanced savings
The IMF has also revised its expectations in terms of titles inflation for advanced economies, including the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada, to 2.5% for 2025, reflecting an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the January projection.
The American inflation prospects have also been revised higher by 1 percentage point compared to January, where it was estimated above the range of 2%.
“For the United States, this reflects the dynamics of obstinate prices in the service sector as well as recent increase in the growth in basic goods (excluding food and energy) and the shock of the supply of recent prices,” noted the IMF in its April report.
The increase in inflation of major economies has been offset by downward revisions in certain emerging markets and developing savings.
The extent to which samples are put pressure on the efforts of central banks to reduce inflation is subject to “the question of whether the prices are perceived as temporary or permanent”, according to the IMF report.
Previous episodes of market volatility have led to strengthening the US dollar compared to other countries, creating increased inflationary pressure in other countries. However, the dollar reversed this trend in the middle of the recent market sale.
“The effect of prices on exchange rates is not simple,” according to Gourinchas. “In the medium term, the dollar can depreciate in real terms if the prices result in lower productivity in the American trade sector, compared to its business partners.”
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