In southern California, and moreover a large part of the country, the accommodation is unaffordable for many, that someone is trying to buy a house or rent an apartment.
Voters' concerns about the country's cost of living, including housing, seems to have played a big role in Donald Trump's dismissal to the White House.
Now can it fix it?
During the campaign, the former president promised to lower mortgage rates, to reduce paperworkOpening federal development lands for development and expelling millions of people in the country illegally – which, according to the campaign, would reduce costs by opening housing for citizens.
Interviews with economists and other housing experts paint a complicated image of how all this could take place, with a certain warning that Trump's agenda could worsen a bad situation, while others could help.
“It depends on what Trump does,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin real estate brokerage.
A big question is mortgage rate.
Presidents do not set borrowing costs, although the policies that their administrations adopt can influence the price of a loan.
With regard to mortgages, interest rates are strongly influenced by the expectation of inflation. An increasing federal deficit can also exert upward pressure on rates.
Problems of the supply chain coming out of the pandemic emergency, coupled with Pandemic economic stimulus Under Presidents Trump and Biden, have been blamed to have contributed to the overvoltage of inflation in recent years, although the rate of cost increase has increased at more normal levels.
It is not clear if this slowdown will continue.
A pre-elevated investigation From the Wall Street Journal noted that most economists thought that inflation and interest rates would be higher under Trump policies than vice-president Kamala Harris.
In particular, economists say that the plans declared by the ancient president and which will soon be listed for prices and tax reductions could revive inflation and considerably increase the deficit, thus exerting upward pressure on the costs of real estate loans.
“There is definitely a risk,” said Fairweather.
Ed Pinto, co -director of the Housing Center of the American Enterprise Institute on the right, said that such fears may not pass.
He said he considered prices mainly as a negotiation tactic and noted that Trump had proposed other proposals that could reduce mortgage rates by reducing inflation and deficits. These include reducing energy costs thanks to the production of more fossil fuel and naming the richest man in the world, Elon Musk, to reduce public spending.
Another large housing component is the offer – whose economists tend to distinguish the main rents from the culprit and the prices of houses.
Trump called for the reduction of regulations that make construction more difficult, but many of these rules are the field of local authoritiesGiving the federal government limited options to change course, said Fairweather.
The president -elect Also called to build new houses on federal lands, which, according to Pinto, could improve affordability in states such as UTAH and Nevada, where the federal government has large land stretches and people fleeing from California have increased prices.
Even in the Golden State, Pinto said there were probably many federal land on which to build.
“It would be enormous for the third western third of the country,” said Pinto.
Others are more skeptical. In a report last week of the UBS banking giant, analysts wrote that “the federal land initiative could be challenged by a lack of existing infrastructure in these generally rural areas”.
Immigration is another Joker. Trump is committed to illegally making the greatest deportation of people that the country has ever seen.
Since 2022, there was a estimated 11 million In the United States illegally and mass deportations would break families of mixed statutes and could send shock waves in certain parts of the economy.
Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, said that Trump managed to make mass deportations, this could somewhat reduce housing costs in places such as Los Angeles, because hundreds of thousands of people are forced and houses are left empty.
At the same time, Green noted, deportations could also increase the rent and the prices of houses, because many of the people in the country work illegally in construction, building the houses necessary to improve affordability.
There is evidence that this has happened before. A recent paper Researchers from the University of Utah and the University of Wisconsin have found that the greater application of immigration has led to less buildings at home and at higher houses.
For the moment, the sales and rental markets in the south of California seem to slow down, but most of them are too expensive.
Last month, the rent in the county of the 1.7% from the previous year, but increased by 7.5% compared to October 2019, according to the apartments list. The prices of houses in southern California have slipped for three consecutive months, but remain near their peaks of all time, according to Zillow.
What is happening then is difficult to know. The reason, according to Green? “It's hard to say what Trump's policies are really.”
