US President Donald Trump boasted last week from a trade agreement with the United Kingdom, which British Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed “historic”.
Many economists, however, question the extent of the agreement. Trump's reference rates at 10% against British products, which are currently suspended for 90 days, will remain in place.
The conclusion of this agreement could be part of the discussions at a summit between the European Union and the United Kingdom on May 19 in London. This conciliation could stretch the links between European partners.
“I think that will cause a certain irritation in Brussels. And it is not because there is a direct conflict between the EU and the United Kingdom. This will not compromise the relationship between the EU and the United Kingdom. But that establishes a bad precedent,” said Aslak Berg, a researcher at the Center for European Reform.
“By authorizing the maintenance of these customs tasks, it strengthens the legitimacy of these customs tasks, which are contrary to international law,” he continued, adding that the decision “will not cause permanent damage to relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom”.
British peculiarity
Berg underlines that the case of London is unique.
“The United Kingdom is in a different position from the EU in some respects. The United Kingdom has no trade surplus with the United States and it is a high priority for the Trump administration.”
The researcher is also accompanied by more subjective factors. “Trump loves the United Kingdom. He likes to be invited to the Buckingham Palace. He liked the state visit. And he, Starmer, found a way to speak to Trump who allowed him to get along very well on a personal level. And that matters a lot,” said Berg.
This agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom arrives at a time when the EU threatens to impose 95 billion euros in American products imported into its Member States.
The European Commission has just launched a consultation on a list of goods which could be subject to this additional taxation. The list includes food products, car equipment, electrical equipment, plane equipment and batteries.
The Commission also intends to launch a procedure before the World Trade Organization (WTO).
It is precisely in terms of international law that the trade agreement between Washington and London could cause difficulties in the EU.
“Politically, this is not necessarily a very good signal,” warns Ignacio García Bériero, researcher at the Bruegel Institute.
“It was an important question for the United Kingdom and the EU, as well as other countries, to be able to be the holders of the WTO rules,” he added.
For the researcher, the agreement concluded between Washington and London is not particularly commercial.
ADVERTISEMENT“There is no doubt that this is not a free trade agreement. The main thing that the United Kingdom has obtained was a better treatment on steel, aluminum and cars.
The “reciprocal” American rates apply to 20% of EU property. The measure has been suspended for the moment, but it will be added to the 25% tax on European cars and car equipment entering the United States.
379 billion euros in EU exports to the United States would therefore be subject to new customs tasks.
