Unlock the White House Watch watch newsletter for free
Your guide on what the US elections of 2024 mean for Washington and Le Monde
American manufacturers and services in the service sector will focus on a key activity number next week to assess Donald Trump's prices.
A monthly composite survey of S&P Global of Purchase Managers, which will be published on Wednesday, will be an important barometer of the way in which manufacturers and service providers reacted at the American president on April 2 and the following 90 -day break announced on April 9.
The manufacturing consensus should go from 50.2 last month to 49.4, while the PMI for service providers should go from 54.4 to 52.8. A number more than 50 indicates growth, while less than 50 points towards a contraction.
The data could “be clearly very important for the financial markets,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist in the American capital markets in Santander.
“I am most interested in seeing how the manufacturing sector reacts to prices,” he added. “Have orders changed?” Are stocks accumulated? How much do the prices of materials jump?
Stanley said that “the services index could be at least a partial reading on the consumer's state”.
THE previous dataCollected between March 12 and March 21, showed net collection in American commercial activity, the growth of the service sector, more compensating for a drop in manufacturing production.
Even then, companies have declared that they have reduced their expectations for the rest of 2025, “often quoting concerns about customer demand and the impact of the aspects of new administration policies,” said the World S&P World Report.
The PMI survey of this month was collected since April 9 and the results will continue to be collected until April 22, according to S&P Global. Will Schmitt
Does the British economy stand in despite the uncertainty of the market?
Next week will provide new readings on the health of the British economy while analysts and investors will try to assess the impact of the uncertainty of global trade and tax changes made in the October budget.
First, the indices of purchasing managers for April, due Wednesday, will give an indication of the confidence of the business sector.
The service sector should display a reading of 51.3, according to economists interviewed by Reuters, where a number greater than 50 indicates the expansion and under this level indicates the contraction. It was 52.5 last month.
The manufacturing sector should remain in the contraction territory at 44.0, below the previous reading of 44.9.
RBC Capital Markets analysts declared that they were looking for an improvement in April figures, but added: “The obvious risk of this is the impact on the feeling of the American tariff announcement earlier this month, although we pointed out that the services of the United Kingdom services to the United States remain without a price, so the direct impact should be limited.”
Retail sales for Mars will be published on Friday, with reuters pole economists expecting them to decrease 0.4% per month, compared to the increase of 1% per month in February.
Recent economic data points have been positive, with higher GDP growth than expected in February, then inflation lowered faster than expected in March.
But merchants are still expecting at least three interest drops in the quarter -point interest rate from the Bank of England by the end of the year, of the current 4.5%, according to the levels involved by the exchange markets – highlighting the nerves concerning the impact of the growth of the commercial war of Donald Trump. Ian Smith
Has the economy of the euro zone been affected by the trade war?
Investors will seek the first signals on how the trade war of US President Donald Trump affects the economic activity of the euro zone in data published next week.
The index of the purchasing managers of the HCOB euro zone, a monthly survey of supply chain managers, should show a lower reading in April, because the price uncertainty weighs the feeling of companies.
Reading checked 50.9 last month, but the economists interviewed by Reuters expect it to fall to 50.3 for April. A reading greater than 50 indicates expansion.
“There will be so much factor of fear from the pricing announcement,” Carsten Brzeski, Macro’s world official in Ing Research, told Carsten.
The survey includes separate measures for the services and manufacturing sectors, the latter should fall to 47.5, compared to 48.6 in the previous month.
In next week's release, “Services is the most interesting,” said Brzeski. It expects to see a drop in services as well as the decrease widely planned for manufacturing.
“If the services remain relatively stable, it would be an indication that domestic demand is always solid in the euro zone. If the PMI services also drop … it clearly shows us that the second quarter is another quarter to forget for the euro zone.”
The European Central Bank was forced to reduce interest rates by a quarter of a point to 2.25% this week after the American prices brought the growth problems in the foreground for the block. Emily Herbert
