Here is the ventilation of inflation for March 2025 – in a single graphic

Inflation strangled in March, largely down the prices of gasoline – but prices threaten This downward trend in the coming months while problems are also hidden in certain categories such as grocery store, economists said.

THE Consumer price index An increase of 2.4% for the 12 months ending in March, against 2.8% in February, the American work statistics office reported Thursday, indicating that inflation deceased.

In addition, the “basic” ICC – a measure that removes food and energy prices, which can be volatile – increased from 3.1% to 2.8%, the lowest level since March 2021. Economists prefer to examine central inflation to determine the underlying inflation trends.

However, there are difficulties such as the prices of the grocery store and the economic policy of the Trump administration sets up an important side, said economists.

“It would have been a very good day,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's, about the IPC report. “But because of the rates, the trade war, it means nothing.”

He added that “this does not reflect any of the tariffs on products from around the world, especially those who come from China”.

The consumer price index is a widely used inflation measure which follows the speed with which prices increase or decrease in a basket of goods and services, haircuts at coffee, clothing and concert tickets.

The inflation of the IPC has decreased considerably compared to its top of the pandemic era by 9.1% in June 2022.

However, it remains above the objective of the federal reserve. The Central Bank is targeting an annual rate around 2% in the long term.

Prices, a tax paid by American importers, add costs for companies that finally be transmitted to consumerssaid economists. Steel prices, for example, could make articles with high steel intensity such as cars, houses and more expensive machines, they said.

The prices “will be the main engine of inflation that increases this year,” said Thomas Ryan, economist in Capital Economics.

President Donald Trump Wednesday remote the imposition of steep prices on dozens of business partners, following a BOURTHOOD And US government bond yields increasingwhich lowers the prices of bonds.

While Trump delayed specific prices in the country for 90 days, all American trade partners are still faced at a universal rate of 10% on all imports. Exceptions – Canada, China and Mexico – face separate samples.

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Imports from China are subject to a 145%rate, for example. In response, China has put 84% of reprisals on American exports. Trump has also imposed specific prices for aluminum, steel and cars and car parts.

“Many products that the United States imports are mainly from China. Smartphones (73%), laptops (78%), video game consoles (87%), toys (77%), as well as antibiotics for American cattle production,” wrote Wendong Zhang. “The resources of other countries will take time and lead to much higher costs.”

Trump's pricing policy will push the American inflation rate at a peak of approximately 4% by the end of 2025, estimates economic capital. It is almost double the long -term lens of the Fed.

Vanguard Group projects a similar increase in inflation, especially for goods prices. The fund manager provides an inflation rate of 4% of the year entirely in 2025 due to American prices and reprisals by other nations.

Economists wonder if the impact of inflation will be short -lived (similar to a punctual shock) or something more persistent.

Inflation was to continue its gradual decline in 2025 in the absence of Trump's economic policy, said Preston Caldwell, US chief economist in Morningstar.

The trajectory of housing inflation is a major engine of this disinflationist trend, he said.

The shelter is the largest component of the consumer price index and therefore has a disproportionate impact on the direction of inflation. The annual inflation of the refuge decreased to 4% in March, the smallest increase of 12 months since November 2021, according to the BLS.

Disinflation of the accommodation is “something that is somehow in stone, at this stage,” said Caldwell.

Fuel prices also dropped in March. Pump prices decreased by 6.3% from February to March, after an adjustment for seasonal factors, according to the BLS.

The prices seasonally adjusted are down approximately 10% in the past year.

Oil price plunge In early April, linked to the fears of a demand for global recession, and gasoline prices should come back more if the trend continues, economists said.

However, the difficulties remain.

Food prices were “significant imperfections” in the IPC report, especially those of the grocery store, said Zandi.

According to BLS data, grocery prices increased by 0.5% in February to March, compared to 0% in the previous month, which is greater than the monthly decision of approximately 0.2% which, according to economists, is necessary to achieve the annual Fed inflation objective.

Egg prices have jumped by around 6% for the month and increased by 60% in the past year, according to BLS data. This jump is largely due to an American bird flu epidemic, which killed millions of laying chickens and supply of group eggs.

Instant coffee prices have also increased, around 13%. Mothers like droughts fueled by climate change disturbed major coffee producers Like Brazil, by reducing coffee grain supplies.

However, the large increase in prices of the grocery store is not attributable to a factor or an agricultural product, said Zandi.

It is “worrying” that food inflation has accelerated even if diesel prices have dropped, a dynamic that would generally be used to reduce inflation due to the drop in transport costs to the shelves of the grocery store, Zandi said.

“This inflation report had some protruding facts and continues to have prices for food and energy components such as electricity and natural gas,” Greg McBride, chief financial analyst of Bankrate on Thursday morning. “But all of this is looking in the rear view mirror. With inflation and the global economy, uncertainty abounds on what could be hidden in the turn.”