Goldman Sachs has reduced its forecasts for US crude oil prices, the investment bank, the American economy bank slows down and the risk of recession due to President Donald Trump's prices. Sunday, Goldman reduced its prospects for December 2025 for the crude and the world reference of Brent at $ 58 and $ 62 per barrel, respectively. Prices should drop more in 2026 with the American gross and Brent on average of $ 55 and $ 58 per barrel, according to the bank. “The risks for our reduced oil price forecasts remain downward, as the risk of recession has increased more and because the offer of OPEC + can increase more than what we assume,” raw material analysts told Dan Struyven to customers in a note. Goldman economists have reduced economic growth forecasts for the United States from half to 0.5%, compared to 1% before. The bank now sees 45% probability that the economy contracts over the next 12 months, its economists warning that they will change their forecasts to a recession if Trump implements most of its prices on April 9. The decision of the key members of OPEC + to accelerate production increases has exerted additional pressure on prices. Trump praised the drop in oil prices as a victory on the fight against inflation on Monday, but the sharp decline can report a recession and may compromise the administration’s objective of stimulating production in the US recession of the Brent future contract in pre-MOIS decreased 12.5% from the end of Wednesday until the end of Friday. A drop in this magnitude could be avant-garde of an economic slowdown, according to Martijn Rats, strategist of raw materials at Morgan Stanley. Brent has reserved two days of 12.5% or more than 24 times since the contract began to negotiate in the summer of 1988 and 22 of them during the recessions, customers of customers told a note on Monday. Morgan Stanley now plans that Brent fell to $ 62.50 per barrel in the third quarter, compared to $ 67.50 before. Bank of America sees the growth of oil demand this year drop in half due to Trump prices at the same time as OPEC + takes up oil in a fragile market. This could lead to an “attractive” surplus of 1.25 million barrels per day, according to the bank. “If this is the scenario that actually takes place, we believe that oil prices and equity values spilled by oil have more room to fall,” analysts led by Kalei Akamine told customers in a Monday. American production could lower the production of American shale could fall to current price levels. Producers have an average of the intermediate price of western Texas to an average of $ 65 per barrel to bring new wells profitably, according to the latest Dallas Fed energy survey. The American crude was negotiated below $ 61 per barrel on Monday morning. Goldman has already reduced his American shale supply forecasts. The investment bank sees the production of American oil in the continental states 48 going from a peak of 11.4 million b / d in March 2025 to 11.3 million b / d in December 2026. Goldman previously expected to reach 11.9 million b / d. “The purchase of protection against the additional price drop remains attractive for oil producers, and oil dishes remain attractive recession coverage for macro-investors,” said Struyven. “We also continue to recommend that the coverage hedges have postponed refined product margins.” Oil leaders were scathing in their criticism of Trump prices in anonymous responses to the Fed de Dallas first quarter. Several leaders have said that they have faced the increase in costs due to steel prices and should reduce production if the White House succeeds in considerably reducing oil prices. “The threat of oil prices by $ 50 per administration led our company to reduce its capital expenses by 2025 and 2026,” said the executive. “'Drill, baby, exercise' does not work with $ 50 by petroleum. The platforms will be abandoned, employment in the petroleum industry will decrease and the production of American oil will decrease as during COVID-19.” While Wall Street generally sees the risks for the disadvantage, the consulting company Rystad Energy expects that “the recent short -lived price shout, amortized by the planned summer demand and the ongoing geopolitical risks,” said Mukesh Sahdev, the world chief of the group's goods, in a Friday note. “With potential disruptions of the offer resulting from sanctions and prices – on sellers and buyers – oil prices cannot remain below $ 70 for a long time,” said Sahdev. Get your Pro Live ticket join us on the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Win an advantage with CNBC Pro Live, an exclusive and inaugural event on the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today's dynamic financial landscape, access to expert information is essential. 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Goldman reduces US oil forecasts as the risk of recession increases on Trump prices
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