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In a corner of the American rust belt, the workers of the former GE electricity company betting a revolution motivated by the AI revolution will survive the world trade war and the supply chain unleashed by Donald Trump.
Ge Vernova, trained a year ago after breaking the conglomerate, invests nearly $ 600 million to extend its former head office to Schenectady, in New York State, and in other sites to make equipment for gas power plants and to help revise the aging electrical network in the United States.
The strategy is aligned with the thrust of the Trump administration to reshape the manufacture and break the dependence of the United States with regard to supply chains abroad – in particular China.
It is also part of a wider pivot of natural gas in an economy where artificial intelligence data centers should require huge volumes of reliable electricity and 24th out of 24 – and fossil fuels promoted by President Trump on renewable energies can provide it.
These trends overeating Ge Vernova's action, which tripled to a summit of $ 438 in January after his April 2024 spin-off, after repeated losses of his wind energy activity in difficulty.
But analysts warn that the post-Spin euphoria is threatened, because the efficiency gains made by the Chinese deep AI model let investors wonder if the technology will need as much power as thought.
Ge Vernova's actions fell 26% since he reached a peak on January 23, when Trump unveiled his Stargate project of $ 500 billion for AI.
“If the Cycle of the MEDIATIC OF AI is going to Earth … The stock will feel pressure,” said Brett Castelli, action analyst during research on Morningstar.
In addition to doubts about power projections, Trump's attacks on renewable energies and its aggressive trade war have become potential problems for wind chains and business supply chains.
After two decades of stagnation, electricity consumption of the United States has increased to record vertices and should increase by an additional 16% by 2029, driven by AI data centers and on reflection strategies on the reflection network.
This market dynamic has transformed GE Vernova gas turbine activities. Turbine orders doubled last year and the company was completely reserved in 2028.
Its electrification activity, which produces grid equipment, has seen orders increase by almost 20% on the other. “We are entering an investment supercycle,” said Scott Strazik, Managing Director of Ge Vernova, in an interview last month.
But demand prospects are rich in risk given the uncertainties around AI.
The electrical research institute, for example, project data centers could consume as little as 4.6% of American electricity by 2030, compared to only 4%. But it also indicates that the share could reach almost 10%.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Energy suggests that demand could triple by 2028.
“Ge Vernova is a game on the electrification of the economy and the increase in demand for electricity … The variable that has the widest range of results is AI,” said Castelli.
His wind business has also reached turbulence. Two years ago, under the Bidenly Bidenly Renewable administration, the company planned to transform Schenectady into a growth center for industry.
But this was part of the company, under pressure from the constraints of the supply chain, high interest rates and a disastrous collapse of the offshore wind blade last summer due to a manufacturing deviation.
From now on, Trump's freeze and efforts to eliminate the law on inflation reduction, the Biden signing climate law extending subsidies to wind developers, left the entire offshore wind sector in danger.
Last week, the administration abandoned a huge offshore wind project of $ 5 billion from Equinor which was already in development.
Ge Vernova's orders for Oshore and Offshore wind turbines almost halved last year, and the company announced that it no longer took new offshore orders and reduced the company.
“The moment of growth inflection is very difficult to call,” Strazik told FT.
Trump's pricing war against countries following its announcement of “Liberation Day” of April 2 also put the supply chain of American manufacturers in uncertainty.
Strazik and other managers of Ge Vernova, however, rejected concerns about the future, highlighting substantial growth in power demand beyond American data and AI, a continuous global transition to lower carbon energy and their investments in the American supply chain.
“This is where it helps to be an American company,” said Strazik. “We will continue to locate our companies since the geopolitical supply chains are complicated.”
