From oil wealth to the key diplomatic player: how Saudi Arabia has become a world mediator

While Riyadh is preparing to organize US-Ukraine discussions on how to end the Russian war, analysts explain to Euronews how Saudi Arabia has become a diplomatic heavyweight.

Four years after the invasion of Russia on a large scale of Ukraine, Saudi Arabia has established itself as an unexpected but effective mediator between the nations at war.

Having long been an Arab power because of its oil wealth, its booming economy and its political stability in a region in difficulty, it emerges as a major world diplomatic player.

On Monday, Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman will welcome Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Riyadh, where talks between the officials of Washington and kyiv will take place on a peace framework to end the war.

It will be the first high-level meeting in the United States and Ukraine since the stormy argument between Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump in the Oval office earlier this month.

These talks occur only a few weeks after Riyadh welcomed senior American and Russian officials for their largest commitment since Russia began his war in February 2022. As part of the diplomatic thaw, Washington and Moscow agreed to work together to end the conflict.

So how has Saudi Arabia positioned as an electric broker in international diplomacy?

Raw power

Oil diplomacy offers a partial explanation. With the United States and Russia, Saudi Arabia is one of the world's crude oil producers.

In fact, Riyadh was at the forefront of a recent agreement of the eight OPEC + countries to start increasing the production of crude oil from April 2025, a decision that contributed to the drop in prices this week – and responded to a Trump request.

On January 24, Trump told the World Economic Forum in Davos that oil prices could cause the end of the war in Ukraine, and said it would ask Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations to take action.

“Right now, the price is high enough for war to continue,” Trump told Davos. “You have to reduce the price of oil and put an end to war.”

OPEC + members are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.

Given that Russia was part of this decision, it is difficult to imagine that Moscow expects the lower oil price to bare its own interests, said Raffaele Marchetti, professor of international relations at Luiss University in Rome.

“It is too simplistic to think in terms of the cost of raw materials as a lever effect to weaken Russia,” he told Euronews.

“We see a commitment between Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States to find a new global balance by using a common (oil) good of their exclusive circle with wider political objectives”.

Large safety swore

Saudi Arabia has a central role in the Middle East, decision-making and post-war reconstruction in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, as well as in the containment of Iran and its proxies.

In the early 2000s, the Saudi monarchy had been threatened and almost destabilized by Islamic fundamentalist terrorism – led by Osama bin Laden – which led to attacks on September 11, 2011 against twin towers in New York. Since then, Saudi Arabia has invested massively in its security policies and in the projection of its growing force outside.

In the light of the American invasion of Iraq, the failure of the Israeli-Palestinal Peace Process (before October 7, 2023) and the destructive civil war in Syria, the stature of Saudi Arabia has continued to develop, and it is the only power in the region capable of competing Israel, Iran and Turkey.

“The global evolution of the Arab world has caused a power of power from Egypt, Syria and Iraq to the Gulf countries,” said Yves Aubin de la Messuzière, the former Tunisia ambassador and an expert in the larger region.

“Saudi Arabia has all the factors of power as its economic weight, an extended territory, 30 million inhabitants and religious leadership on the Sunni world community.”

Riyadh announced last month that he would increase his defense expenses to nearly 75 billion euros this year, or nearly 3 billion euros on last year's spending.

This allowance puts its military expenses at 7.1% of GDP and means that it is one of the first five countries both in terms of relative and absolute expenses for defense.

Sustainable international recognition

The long-standing balancing act of Saudi Arabia which has seen it develop and maintain solid relations with various CCG blocks to the BRICS, as well as major allies such as the United States, is the way it played the role of the mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

“For any country, being the host location of significant international talks has implicit political values, as it has been traditionally in the case of Switzerland,” said Luigi Narbone, who was a ambassador, responsible for the EU delegation to Saudi Arabia and non -resident Arab Emirates in Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

“We must not underestimate this symbolic element (Riyadic accommodation talks). It is clear that Saudi Arabia is looking for definitive and sustainable international recognition, “he told Euronews.

Indeed, the network of bilateral relations of Saudi Arabia makes it an attractive choice with regard to world diplomacy, according to Michael Harris, analyst of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) – a reflection group based in the United Kingdom.

“They (the United States and Russia) met in Saudi Arabia because how many countries would feel comfortable to be the hosts for them?”, He told Euronews.

“In addition, Trump is necessary to hire Saudis anyway. And it is too early for American officials to go to Russia. It is probably the same in terms of Russia who goes anywhere in Europe for the United States,” added Harris.

Saudi Arabia maintains a cordial relationship with Russia despite its rivalry with Iran and, at the same time, is a stability lighthouse in a fractured and criminal Middle East.

The Palestinian question

Washington would like Riyadh to meet the so -called Abraham agreements to normalize links with Israel. The realization of Trump's most important foreign policy from his first mandate was to welcome the signing of a series of standardization agreements under the agreements between Israel and Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates (Water) in September 2020.

However, Saudi Arabia refuses to sign the Abraham agreements without the creation of a Palestinian state.

“While the young Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in principle has a pragmatic political approach, the 89 -year -old king, King Salman Al Saud, is extremely sensitive to the Palestinian cause, especially for religious reasons,” said Messuzière.

In addition, despite its authoritarian monarchical system, the Saudi regime is vigilant for any reaction or agitation of its citizens with regard to major political decisions.

“The Saudi population is mainly young and very sensitive to the Palestinian question,” added Messuzière.

Source Link