The electric vehicle market is imbued with uncertainty. EV sales growth idle; Car manufacturers are withdraw on EV production; Politics around the subject becomes mean, because the very idea of driving an electric vehicle has entered cultural wars.
But an analyst said does not worry: “Our long -term prospects for electric vehicles remain shiny.”
It is according to the market researcher Bloombergnef, who published the 2024 version of its annual report on the prospects of electric vehicles Wednesday.
In 2023, electric vehicles represented 18% of world sales of passenger vehicles. By 2030, according to the report, 45% will be electric vehicles. This number increases to 73% by 2040 – still unless the world needs to achieve zero net emissions in transport, says the company, but enough to make major reductions in carbon emissions that change the climate.
The long-term perspectives add a little glow to more recent news, especially in the United States and California, where an EV Slower sales, led by Teslalasted two quarters, which questions the climatic objectives of the state.
A global survey by consulting company McKinsey, also published on Wednesday, included this shock: 29% of the owners of electric vehicle vehicles told McKinsey that they planned to replace the EV that they bought with a petrol or diesel car, a figure that jumps 38% for the owners of electric vehicles.
Phillip Kampshoff, who heads McKinsey's future mobility center in the Americas, said that he had seen EV sales as “a one -way street.” Once you buy, you are addicted to an EV. But that's not what the data shows. ”
Under a 2020 decree By governor Gavin Newsom, car manufacturers must eliminate sales in California from new fossil fuel cars by 2035, while only what the state calls “zero emission vehicles” will be authorized. (The mandate allows 20% of these vehicles to be rechargeable hybrids, which can operate on fossil fuels.)
Eleven other states follow the example of California, although the Republican Governor of Virginia plans to give up at the end of the year.
In the United States, hard cake policy affects consumer attitudes towards electric vehicles, because the presidential candidate Donald Trump and his supporters in Congress have transformed government regulations on emissions technology into a red meat problem For Maga Conservatives. Or, as Bloombergnef says: “In the United States, market assaults ignited by the next presidential elections have helped to slow down adoption this year.”
Beyond the policy, the way of the growth of the FE is filled with dangers, and different countries evolve at different speeds and with different levels of engagement.
Today, “China, India and France are still showing signs of healthy growth, but the latest data from Germany, Italy and the United States are more worrying,” said Bloombergnef. Global sales of electric vehicles “should go from 13.9 million in 2023 to more than 30 million in 2027”, despite the late United States
Whatever geography, consumer concerns about the price, the practice, the battery life and Unreliable public load Continue to alleviate the enthusiasm of many buyers for electric vehicles. Bloombergnef 'conclusions are taken over by the consulting firm McKinsey and the AAA Motor Club, in their own forecasts.
But the EV prices fall, the range improves and a large number of public chargers are installed, which could all revive sales growth.
Intention to buy
Consumers on the planet warm up at the idea of buying an electric car, but they move slowly. According to McKinsey, 14% of the 30,000 respondents in the world survey in 2021 said their next vehicle would be an EV. This year is 18%.
In the United States, this is another story, where consumers' interest in the purchase of VE has decreased to 18% this year, according to AAA investigationDown against 23% in 2023. And almost two thirds indicated that they do not buy an EV the next time they buy a car.
The interest in hybrids is increasing. One in three said they were likely to buy a hybrid, a vehicle that adds a small battery to an internal combustion engine to improve energy efficiency.
This is bad news for the sales of Pure EV, at least in the immediate future, said Greg Brannon, head of car research at AAA. The first adopters already have their electric vehicles, he said, while traditional buyers remain skeptical.
The drop in sales of Tesla, overcapacity and price reductions, as well as Bouffonneries of the CEO Elon MuskBode sick for the American market as a whole. “Tesla is one of the main indicators of what is happening on the electric vehicle market,” said Brannon. “When we see a softening in Tesla, we see a softening at all levels.”
The main car manufacturers lose billions of dollars in their EV divisions. TeslaMercedes-Benz, General Motors and Ford have all reduced their EV goals for the United States, at least temporarily. However, companies such as Hyundai and Kia do not withdraw. The market goes from the first adopters to “early majority customers”, Kia’s CEO CEO told Automotive News.
“Once we start to enter the customers of the early majority, the speed of transition to electrification will be fast,” said Song. “Our commitment remains resolved.”
Global markets
In China, India and even in France, the photo is different. China is the largest automobile seller in the world of any type, including electric vehicles. The country has succeeded in making electric vehicles much cheaper than car manufacturers in the United States and Europe, and they started a large export push. (THE Biden administration is 100% tariff on electric manufacturing vehicles in China to protect national manufacturing.)
For the first quarter in China, sales of electric vehicles increased by 37%, according to Bloombergnef. In India, it's 39% and in France, 20%. The United States was a delay, up 4%.
Slide on the s?
Bloombergnef and McKinsey both said that sales of electric vehicles seem to be on the lump sum of what is known in business circles under the name of Curve. Sales of a new popular technology quickly take off from the first adopters, then slide flat for a while while customers consumer public reflect their options, then go up if the general public buys.
Killoff de McKinsey said he personally thought that the dominant current would set go – but perhaps not as aggressively as the industry used to hopes. The consulting firm has reduced its growth projections for 2030 from 15% to 20%, he said.
However, “although we expected a slower adoption, overall, we are still quite optimistic.”
