The Washington Post | The Washington Post | Getty images
The economic impact of the prices imposed by the Trump administration will soon become obvious for everyday Americans and will lead to a recession this summer, according to Apollo Global Management.
Torsten Slok, chief economist in Apollo, exhibited a chronology in a Presentation for customers It showed when the impact of prices announced by the president Donald Trump could strike the American economy. Based on the transportation time required for goods from China, American consumers could start noticing shortages related to trade in their local stores next month, according to the presentation.
“The consequence will be empty shelves in American stores in a few weeks and comfortable shortages for consumers and for companies using Chinese products as intermediate goods,” Slok wrote in a note to customers on Friday.
Calendar recession rate:
- April 2: prices announced, departure of containers from China with slowdown in the United States
- Beginning in Mid Mai: containers with American ports stop
- May at the end of May: the demand for trucking stops, causing empty shelves and a drop in sales for companies
- At the end of May to early June: layoffs in the truck and retail industries
- Summer 2025: recession
Source: Apollo World Management
To support the idea that the US economy is on the verge of recession, the presentation also included data that shows new activity orders, prospects for profits and capital spending plans have all dropped in recent weeks.
The Trump administration interrupted some of the prices announced on April 2, but increased even higher tasks in China. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent admitted on Monday “on”Squawk box“That the current price with Beijing is”unbearable. “The samples are Chinese goods are now subject to a rate of 145%.
China is not the only source of consumer goods, but it has an important role in the American economy. The United States imported $ 438.9 billion in goods of China in 2024, according to the office of the US trade representative, putting it just behind Mexico and above Canada On the list of business partners by this metric.
While many in Wall Street now say that a recession for the United States is likely In 2025, socks predictions are towards the more pessimistic side. Bessent said the administration expects one “detoxification period“For the economy due to commercial negotiations but not necessarily a recession.
There is also evidence of a “draw” in orders before the prices announce, which could keep the goods on the shelves longer than Apollo's deadlines.
“Do not yet expect empty shelves – (the year to date) the actions are still up, and the request slows down,” Bernstein analyst said on Monday, analyst Anesha Sherman in a note to customers.
– Michael Bloom of CNBC contributed to the reports.
