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China could replace the United States as a dominant energy power in the world while Donald Trump's trade war is reflected in American oil producers and Beijing is expanding its advance on clean technologies, analysts warned.
The American president announced a new aggressive price The regime at the beginning of the month that is lower than oil prices, and also decided to kill the desire of the previous Biden administration to build a national technology of own technologies to compete with China.
The prices could make more difficult for American oil producers to participate in its “most attractive export markets,” said a report, “hard at the top: threats to the domination of American energy”, of the Wood Mackenzie. The United States is also “significantly” by China in technologies such as lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles and solar cells.
American oil production has skyrocketed during the term of the president of Joe Biden and is now higher than that of any country in history. But it would begin to decline in the early 2030s, Wood Mackenzie said, despite Trump's wish to reduce regulations and decrees to support his “drill, baby, drill” energy strategy.
In March 2025, the interior production of crude oil in China climbed 19.03 million tonnes, according to official statistics, a summit of all time.
“US domination upstream should continue for a certain time but on current trends. However, its management is faced with challenges and could possibly erode,” said the report.
While Trump fell from some of the radical prices he announced during his “liberation day” on April 2 – and spared energy imports from certain tasks – his trade war with China sparked fears of recession and has helped to arouse a vicious petroleum market in recent weeks.
“The drop in oil prices could have, according to their low, a fairly significant impact on the potential of American oil production to continue to grow and perhaps cause a decline,” Jason Bordoff told Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.
Prices, including a 25% tax on steel imports, should also significantly increase the production costs of American shale forests, oil leaders and analysts have warned.
“By thinking of steel prices and the equipment used in the wells, producers are concerned about the cost of oil that swells by two-digit two-digit means,” said Robert Clarke, Vice-President upstream at Wood Mackenzie.
Shale oil producers have warned that diving prices for oil, tariff war and the uncertainty of politics worse crisis Since the Pandemic COVID-19 has broken the sector in 2020.
The concerns concerning the warnings of the domination of the own technologies of China Echo to energy experts and managers of the renewable energy industry, who declared that the Trump administration hostile approach Green energy could cement the control of China in the sector.
“It will be difficult for the United States to catch up (in China); However, there are other options, such as the diversification of solar panels produced at the national level, “said David Brown, director of the energy transition practice of Wood Mackenzie. “But you see that the debate is now taking place at Congress, on the quantity of government support for new energies.”
Bordoff said that the construction of home supply chains in “any significant delay” was a “more intimidating perspective than anyone in Washington seems to recognize it”.
On Wednesday, the Trump administration removed an offshore wind project of $ 5 billion that the Norway Equary developed off the coast of New York – the last administration decision to stop the Biden renewable energy program.
Trump also threatens hundreds of billions of dollars in loans, subsidies and tax alternatives for cleaning developers, while he takes off the inflation reduction law, the Biden climate law filled with subsidies to support huge projects to break American dependence on Chinese technology.
Although low carbon energy production in the United States was to continue to increase China’s global market share in electric vehicles, batteries and energy storage would also do it, said Wood Mackenzie, while the country has capitalized on its low-cost manufacturing.
