Donald Trump obtains bad grades on the last economic bulletin card

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Donald Trump's latest economic war ballot was released, and it seems austere.

US economy Contracted by a annualized 0.3% In the first quarter of 2025, according to data published yesterday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. An increase in imports from companies storing products before Trump prices have weighed on the figure, even if investment and consumption expenditure increased.

The contraction, the first since 2022, was worse than the most recent forecasts of economists, and came as The American trade deficit has affected a summit of all timeAccording to figures published Tuesday by the census office.

The president was characteristic quick to get rid of all blame. In an article on Truth Social, Trump insisted that the figures had “nothing to do with the prices”. He pinned the contraction on Joe Biden and added: “When the boom starts, it will be like no other. Be patient !!!”

Economists said they were planning a rebound in the second quarter as imports are falling and stocks are heading for the shelves. But they also warned that prices would begin to reach domestic demand.

ESWAR PRASAD, professor at Cornell University, said that strong consumption expenses earlier this year were “a poignant recall of what could have been a graceful mild landing until the radical prices launched the economy out of course”.

Beyond GDP, Wall Street is impatient to point out that the administration makes progress on new trade agreements in the 90-day window before Trump is “reciprocal of Trump price“Take effect.

“The market is super focused on these first commercial offers”, president of Goldman Sachs John Waldron said in an interview with the Financial Times.

The former secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, was more frank. She told the Financial Times that the prices would have a Impact “extremely unfavorable” On the greatest economy in the world.

I am not yet ready to say that I plan a recession, but the chances have certainly increased

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What we hear

Trump's best economic advisor, Stephen Miran, fought to appease the main bond investors With an argument on the prices which, according to people with direct knowledge of the meeting, were “incoherent”. (Free to read)

Last Friday, the president of the Council of Economic Councilors met representatives of the main investors of the executive building of the White House. Participants included representatives of the hedge funds Balyasny, Tudor and Citadel, as well as the PGIM and BlackRock asset managers.

People familiar with the meeting told the Financial Times that Miran did not do much to appease their fears concerning the recent tumult on the financial markets. The US government's obligations sold strongly after the announcement of the president's “liberation day” on April 2, and Wall Street's shares have flowed around 7% since the start of Trump 2.0.

Miran has also firmly glued to the administration line that prices more affect trade partners than the United States, according to the participants in Reunion. A participant said he seemed “out of his depth”.

“(Miran) had questions and that's when it collapsed,” added the person. “When you are with an audience who knows a lot, the discussion points are dismantled fairly quickly.”

Miran wrote a widely read note in November describing the alignment plans for global markets around American interests, in particular by weakening the dollar. Since he joined the administration, however, he has more and more sought to distant these ideas, said a person familiar with the issue.

“Administration officials maintain regular contact with business leaders and industrial groups on our commercial and economic policies,” said the White House in response to the questions about Reunion. “The only interest which guides the administration and decision -making of President Trump, however, is the best interest of the American people.”

Views

• By failing to collect environmental data, the United States is on the right track to become a “Voyou state” for climate sciencewrites the scientific commentator Anjana Ahuja.

• Jason Furman, former president of the White House economic advisers' council, describes his strategy to understand economic data in the middle of the “Substantial turbulence” triggered by the new commercial levies of the administration.

• Trump is Surpass your hand In the World Trade War and the risks repeating the painful errors of Brexit, maintains Chris Giles.

• Katie Martin presents Long -term costs Facing the United States if Trump's policies have pushed the dollar status more as a pillar of global funding.