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The first clues of the impact of Donald Trump's large -scale prices are expected to appear in American inflation when the April figures are published next week.
Economists interviewed by Bloomberg provide that Tuesday data will display annual consumer prices growth of 2.4%, unchanged compared to March.
However, the rate of months in months should drop to 0.3% after a 0.1% drop in prices in the previous month. The planned increase is partly the result of the growing demand for cars while buyers were trying to act before the introduction of priceAccording to analysts from Bank of America.
“The inflation of basic goods has probably accelerated … partly due to the prices and behavior of related consumers,” wrote economists from Bofa Stephen Juneau and Jeseo Park. “Price income and the effective rate rate increased by approximately 2 percentage points in April, which should exert pressure on the prices of goods more broadly. In the meantime, we expect car inflation to increase in the month due in part to frontal demand in anticipation of higher prices of prices. ”
However, Bofa described April's data as representative of calm before the “price storm”. Economists and investors are largely expecting that prices are increasing considerably inflationProbably from this summer, when American companies have exhausted existing stocks and will have to start selling new products at higher prices. BNP Paribas analysts predict that the basic ICC from year to year will reach 4.4% by the fourth quarter of 2026.
The markets assess two or three decreases in interest rate of the federal reserve later this year, but a gust of inflation larger than expected could encourage the central bank to reduce borrowing costs more slowly. Kate Duguid
What is the strength of the British economy?
Investors will examine the British and GDP figures next week for clues on the future path of monetary policy, although the concerns about the reliability of certain data will make the task more difficult.
Strong figures for employment, wage growth and production would support the “progressive and cautious” approach to reduce loan costs taken by the Bank of England, which this week this week Reduce interest rates per quarter point at 4.25%. Many analysts expected more dominant signals of the rate settings.
Employment data published by the Office For National Statistics Tuesday will offer an early overview of the impact of the April increase in national employers' insurance contributions and decent salary.
The annual growth of wages will provide an indication of the force of the pressure of interior prices. Sandra Horsfield, an economist at Investment Bank Investc, plans to slow down regular profits to 5.6% in three months to March, from 5.9% in three months to February.
“The key question right now is how companies react to the national hiking of national insurance contribution,” she said.
But Horsfield also warned that “the reliability of these figures … is in doubt”. A high -level official was responsible for examining the production of ONS dataAfter the concerns were raised regarding the low response rate to certain surveys.
At the same time, stimulated by much stronger growth than expected in February, Thursday GDP data should show the British economy Extended by 0.6% in the first three months of the year, according to a reuters survey of economists.
This complies with the BOE forecasts and an upgrade compared to the 0.25% growth that the bank was waiting for in March.
But the BOE warned that a large part of the force was due to erratic factors. He put an underlying growth in the first quarter to almost zero and predicted a net slowdown in the growth of securities to 0.1% in the second quarter, with biased lower risks. Valentina Rome
Can German actions continue to climb?
Friday, the Dax index of Germany reached a record while the hope of relieving trade tensions prompted investors to return to one of the popular trades of the year – a bet on German growth.
The index is Up 18% so far in 2025While the American first -rate index, the S&P 500, is down approximately 4%. The Dax was lifted by the historic announcement of Germany in March, it would massively increase defense and infrastructure expenses.
Although it flows with other clues at the start of the US President Donald Trump's trade war, the Dax resumed the ground while tensions were calmed, including Friday after a new discussion between Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Trump.
However, Merz's failure to become Chancellor during the first time in the parliamentary vote, before winning the second, was considered by certain investors as stressing the political risk for the economic renewal of Europe.
A UK's trade agreement said that the chief economist of Peel Hunt, Kallum Pickering, “establishes a difficult precedent” for other transactions because of his limited nature, adding that “US trade barriers will remain significantly higher than before Trump takes office.”
Given the short -term risks of American trade negotiations, investors think that the speed at which additional German expenses Could come online could be crucial to support the rally, although some fear, it will not be fast. Ian Smith
