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Chinese oil merchants put aside concerns about the long -term economic damage to an American trade war while they are looking to take advantage of one of the short -term consequences: lower crude crude prices.
Gross imports oil In China, he jumped in March and continued to accelerate in April, according to analysts, while the country reconstitutes actions despite the expectations that a lower global economy will reduce demand.
KPLER, a data company that follows oil tankers who sail in Chinasaid the country imported nearly 11 million barrels per day, the highest level in 18 months and more than 8.9 million people in January.
What started as a wave of purchase of Iranian oil, on fears of new American sanctions, turned into a wider storage of crude after the pricing announcements of President Donald Trump, associated with an increase in production by OPEC of the oil cartel, sent prices sliding to a four -year hollow.
Friday, the Brent Brent bounced to negotiate itself at just over $ 65 per barrel. Morgan Stanley estimates that prices will remain under pressure, falling on an average of $ 62.50 per barrel in the second half.
“China has always been very sensitive to prices,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an oil market analyst at Swiss Bank UBS. “If the price is low, they store it, then reduce their purchases when prices increase. I expect this month's data to be higher than the last due to this strategic purchase. ”
Johannes Rauball of KPLER noted that Chinese oil stocks were low and said that it expected the current import level to continue in the coming months while buyers take advantage of low prices to restore their inventories.
“You might see an increase in imports even if the demand (oil) does not resume as strongly,” he said.
Most analysts believe that the economic impact of the American-Chinese trade war will begin to reduce the demand for oil in the second half of this year, while the economy is starting to slow down.
But turbulence does not yet seem to have seriously affected the appetite of China for road fuel or aviation, and some refineries have delayed their annual maintenance in order to continue to produce gasoline, diesel and fuel to throw while crude prices are low and that the margins are healthy, said Emma Li, analyst at Singapour in the Vortexa market company.
“No one knows what will happen in the following months, especially the second half,” she added. “But the demand seems quite healthy, so I don't expect too much decline.”
China is the largest oil importer in the world and the main oil market which has been forced to leave other markets, including Iranian and Venezuelan.
Chinese buyers have reduced their Iranian oil purchases since early April, when the United States first imposed Sanctions on a refinery In the eastern Shandong province, the house of many private Chinese refiners. After importing a record of 1.8 million b / d of Iranian oil in March, purchases fell to 1.2 million b / d in April, said KPLER.
“There is a certain caution in private refineries and there have been logistical obstacles with certain sanctioned oil tankers,” said Rauball, adding that the amount of Iranian crude seated in sea oils has quickly increased. “We currently see 40 million barrels in 36 ships. 18 min barrels are in Singapore, 10 minutes are at sea Yellow and around 4 million in the southern China Sea. ”
He added that private refineries should continue to import an Iranian crude because of its reduced price.
“Their margins are thin, and they do not have an alternative. Either they import from Iran, or they go bankrupt,” said Raulball. “Many of them are not linked to the American financial system, so the consequences are less if they are affected.”
