Canadian and Australian voters enriched Trump's tariffs

Welcome to trade secrets. Something struck me during the weekend when I saw Donald Trump at Pope Francis funeral in the city of the Vatican: he had artificial to visit one of the rare states on earth that he did not hit with prices. By thinking about it, Italy should fully conclude an agreement with the Vatican to transport its exports to the United States through it to bypass the functions of the US President on the EU. THE Laterran TreatyBut for the rules of origin. I can't imagine any objection.

In this newsletter, I look at this week's federal elections in Canada and Australia and reflecting on the electoral yields to fail Trump's intimidation, which seem to be seriously high. Graphic waters, Who examines the data behind world trade, is on stock prices.

The anglosphere decreases

It is an interesting experience to have elections in two of the five allies of the United States's eyes around the end of the first 100 days of Trump in power. (The United Kingdom THURSDAY To some local elections and a “by -election” to replace a deputy forced to resign for constituenthe himself perhaps something of a Metaphor of the Trump administrationBut nobody really takes this as a referendum on the commercial negotiation strategy of Sir Keir Starmer – on which, more below.)

There is always a risk of projecting an obsession outside a national debate, and Australia elections next week is more focused on the cost of living than on his transactions with Trump. However, prices are certainly a big subject – and in Canada, they are clearly a huge issue. The elections will most likely show that it is a bad idea to position yourself as someone who can coax a lot of Trump to negotiate prices.

I guess it was not easy to all how crazy about Trump. Aware of my watchword, whose evidence continues to accumulateIt includes me. So boast of your ability to withdraw from Trump's good deals, just like The conservative chief of Canada, Pierre Poilievre, in early January, could have been a morally reprehensible idea. But before the day of the inauguration on January 20, it was obviously not self -destructive.

Canada has now crossed an incredibly quickly learning curve, offering an excellent step -by -step demonstration in the rest of the world. Former Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tried Cooperation and charm As soon as President -elected Trump made his price threats in November. It was worth it, but the effect did not last: the threats returned. Then Trudeau tried to resist Trump with a promise of immediate reprisals and joined the nation with a tremendous speech. It seemed to work.

This helps Trump has managed to hammer the American stock market (and most likely his economy) than that of Canada. Mark Carney taking office as Prime Minister of Trudeau and Ample the rhetoric to 11 delivered one of The fastest survey In a democracy, everyone seems to remember. The Hairy Tinde, so to speak, has turned into a massive disadvantage.

It is a less obvious image in Australia, which is in any case economically much more dependent on China as an export market than in the United States. It is Canberra's security relationship with Washington that counts. This situation does not look great. But unlike Russia and Ukraine, Trump has not really changed camps in Asia, and he does not try (yet) to annex Australia.

However, this seems to be a clear tactical error for the leader of the Liberal Party of the opposition Peter Dutton be a boastful Earlier this month, the government led by the Liberals in 2018 used the American-Australia security relationship to negotiate its path outside the prices of steel and aluminum of Trump the first time, and for suggest doing the same thing again. The Liberal Prime Minister at that time, Malcolm Turnbull, warned very strong and publicly that the world has changed and that Trump should not trust. If the The government of labor is re -electedthe lesson for other countries – if it is not already easy – is that you gain from Take a firm line On the job speaking with Trump.

This lesson could even simply be zero on the United Kingdom, where the government of Starmer has established a bizarre habit not only to boast of its ability to get along with Trump, but to claim inspiration Of its administration and specifically the so-called Elon Musk government efficiency departments. Great Britain also estimated that it was relatively safe since it had not made a great surplus with the United States, only to note that after the prices of the “Liberation Day” on April 2 and the “break” retirement on April 9, it was found with the same basic price of 10% as almost everyone.

Lord Peter Mandelson's meretricual idea, British ambassador to Washington and one (impressive) former EU trade commissioner, to prepare a preventive Set of concessions On technology and tax problems seem increasingly reckless. The United Kingdom has at least indicated rhetorically He will favor the EU on American trade. But it would now be a great time to slow down Trump and move forward with Brussels.

Trump slow at his pricing cliff

Speaking of this, the United Kingdom has obviously thought it would get a delivery of early birds by being quick to reach an agreement. It also looks like a bad prediction. Trump administration tactics, as informed here At the Wall Street Journal, are really hilarious, even leaving Trump's pretension negotiated more transactions (200) that there is country of the world.

Six main trade partners each week simultaneously merchanting prices, quotas, rules of origin, regulatory obstacles and other non -tariff obstacles and economic security with an administration whose capacity to execute trade policy is such that it tries to tarric an island of Penguins? If you have broadcast these talks on global salary live, you could close the American budgetary deficit on the product, a world creaking through your fingers in a horrified fascination. It is a real damage that Trump was in the city of the Vatican without a price, so he could not appear in a special negotiation of commercial negotiation The apprentice During the weekend, except that this time with him being turned.

Oh, but wait. There is more. Apparently, the three largest trade partners in the United States (Canada, China and Mexico) will not be in these talks because. . . Reasons. And India is not because. . . Other reasons.

China last week has shown an open contempt for the process, was not in talks with the United States And tell the Americans to bring down the pretender. Japan, generally more circumspect on public disagreements, has also been fairly clear that it does not act under the American instructions.

And as none of the American trade partners felt the need to retaliate with their own prices, they do not harm their own savings while waiting. China has struck, of course, but finds itself completely free to Adjust these reprisals To avoid self -harm without looking weak.

With the popularity of Trump down by the week, the financial markets on the alert for any other sign of chaos and the trade in transpacific containers were simply dried up, for which to see the graphic waters and the section of commercial links below, the business partners without much direct dependence on the death of exports to the United States would be well advised to lead to discussions and leave the negotiations to the death of the death. It would also be much funnier for the rest of us to look at, which at this point is almost the main point.

Graphic waters

A beautiful illustration of the weapon that Trump gave to his business partners in pricing talks: the threat of “reciprocal prices” on April 2 pushed actions in Europe and the United States, while the “break” on April 9 relaunched them. But the idea that the American economy is in the hands of dangerous buffoons has continued to weigh relatively more on the prices of American actions since then, even without more major pricing announcements.

Trade links

The real prospect of shortages in American stores increases while dry transpacific freight due to Trump prices on China: Note people of logistics There are currently no international cargoos in the port of Seattle.

Politico Look at the perspective Trump prices encouraging the EU to conclude trade agreements elsewhere.

Apple wants to move Manufacturing of iPhone in India, but it is unlikely that China will abandon it without Make things difficult.

The uncover newsletter of the FT thought In less than a certain certainty on the prices is established, the markets will find a new level much lower which takes into account the years of volatility to come.

Volkswagen exceeded Tesla As a seller of number one electric vehicles in Europe, which must relieve Brussels political decision -makers who try not to simply put the entire European market EV from an American manufacturer to Chinese decision -makers.

The Lex column of FT look at how The tariff wars could delay the deployment of robot technology.

Trade Secrets is edited by Harvey Nriapia