The Labor Party has dropped since their landslide victory last summer.
Testimony of severity The reform challenge isThey held the head of the voting intention throughout the month of February. The two main parties had not been picked for over 100 years.
Could the reform win the next elections?
According to the law, the next general elections must be held before August 21, 2029 at the latest. The road to come is long and everything is likely to change.
Will work find its stride? Will the conservatives bounce back from The worst defeat of their history? Will the momentum of the reform last five years, and if so, could Nigel Farage win enough seats to become the next Prime Minister?
How did we get the data?
To answer these questions, the Telegraph compiled the surveys from a range of probers approved by the British Polling Council.
These are transparent, reliable and respected bodies like Yougov, Opievers and Redfield and Wilton.
The result of each survey published since July 2024 was weighed on how this Sondoir has performed the last time, with scores from the safe of British electoral data and the size of the sample. The trend line displayed is the result of local regression.
How the support of the parties is breaking down
In the days following the last elections, Yougov sampled more than 35,000 voters to see how support varied according to the different bases.
On the day of the ballot, the women on the right proved more reluctant than the men to line up on the side of the insurgent reform on the conservatives. The most recent polls show that voters have been more and more won over.
The age division lines are also vague: support for reform has developed in all demographic groups, but the push is the strongest among young people.
Support for the Conservatives remains robust with retirees, but the frage grip is also tightened in this age group. The work, on the other hand, collapses with all generations.
We know exactly how many ballots have been sunk for national and regional parties in every corner of the United Kingdom.
Share of work has decreased across the country. The last surveys show a reform at the head of the midlands and the south outside London.
Plaid Cymru and the SNP have both had some success to capitalize on the drop in the fortunes of the ruling party in Wales and Scotland.
How far is Starmer well as PM?
The Prime Minister's honeymoon was very short. Last July, he was a neutral figure in the eyes of the public – because many people reported him to consider him favorably as unfavorably – making him one of the most popular party leaders at the time.
But it quickly changed. In October, it was more negatively perceived than the notoriously dividing Nigel Farage.
How many seats could reform winning during an election?
The first post system has long led to an imbalance between the share of national votes and the number of seats in the municipalities. 2024 was the The most biased elections in history Regarding the comparison on the part of voting and the seats won.
Predding the winner of 650 races at the constituencies is not an easy task. The polls have taken in recent years to lead what is known as MRPS – for “regression on several levels and post -stratification”.
These combine a mega-polol, generally with a sample of more than 10,000, with a range of characteristic data on the local population, sex and age in terms of education and history of voting.
What is the precision of the surveys?
Each survey is delivered with an uncertainty measure. Although all pollsters strive to question a representative sample and weighs the results to reflect the composition of the wider country, a margin of error is inevitable.
In practice, the real position of a particular survey should fall within 2 points of the cited figure.
Each sounder also has a tailor -made approach to the establishment of the intention to vote for securities. The precise wording of the questions may vary, as is the answers “do not know”.
Studies have shown that an aggregated “poll surveys” help to alleviate potential biases emerging from individual probers.
