Astronomers ran to observe the asteroid 2024 years
NASA / Magdalena Ridge 2.4m Telescope / New Mexico Institute of Technology / Ryan
Global space agencies have reduced the chances of Asteroid 2024 years An impact on earth at less than 1%, which strongly suggests that a potentially devastating collision will be avoided. However, the asteroid will probably always pass extraordinarily near our planet, giving astronomers a rare opportunity to observe an asteroid closely.
“We do not expect the probability of impact to go up over 1% for the close approach with the earth in 2032”, explains Richard Moissl to the European Space Agency (ESA). “The more likely development is more likely is a new drop in the probability of impact, probably even at 0.”
Alarm on Asteroid 2024 years were raised for the first time in December of last year, when astronomers found that it could be on a collision trajectory for the earth in 2032. It seems to be between 40 and 90 meters wide and could generate a deadly explosion if it struck a city. During the following weeks, the world's telescopes and space agencies closely followed its trajectory, perfecting its future path with greater precision. It reached its highest risk of impact on February 17, with a chance of 1 in 32, but in the days that followed, it fell to 1 out of 67, or a risk of 1.5%.
On February 20, new observations led to a strong demotion of this risk, NASA putting it at 0.27% of chances of impact, or 1 in 360, and ESA even lower, at 0.16%, or 1 in 625. These notes put it at a 1 on the 10 -point Torino scale used to assess the danger posed by these objects. This score is down compared to 3, which means that 2024 years is now considered one of the many low -risk asteroids discovered each year, but which ultimately lacks the earth.
This is good news, said Gareth Collins At the Imperial College in London, but the asteroid will always be useful as a dry race for our planetary defense systems and for scientific purposes. “It is always something that will make a spectacularly narrow approach. If the risk of hitting was as high as that must approach very close to us, ”he says.
NASA, ESA and space societies that sketch the possible patterns to divert the asteroid will probably continue to plan, probably says Niklas Voigt In OHB, a German space company. Voigt and his team had started to think about a mission to divert 2024 years, and the new risk does not change that, he said. “The risk has decreased, but for the moment, we are still continuing work on the subject.”
The narrow approach could always be a good opportunity to test our ability to divert asteroids, explains Voigt – the only previous attempt to do so was the NASA Dart mission, which managed to change the trajectory of satellite from 160 meters to 2024 years old Apophis, which should pass near the earth in 2029.
A final decision on what to do around 2024 years will probably not be taken before the observations scheduled in March using the James Webb space telescope. In addition to collecting trajectory data, this will better assess the size and composition of the asteroid. This information will then be awarded to the planning group in the Spatial Mission Planning supported by the United Nations, which will decide a better line of conduct towards the end of April. “These are incredibly useful exercises to discover the pinch points to make decisions, in order to still have time to do something sensible in advance,” explains Collins. “Absolutely, these committees will always meet, but they will probably be less stressful.”
While the chances of an impact on earth has dropped, the risk of 2024 years strikes the moon went to 1.2%, compared to 0.3%. There is a “distinct possibility that this number increases more”, explains Moissl. “The exact effects of an impact on the moon from an object of this size are still being evaluated.”
The response to this object was also a useful repetition for other asteroids of concern that arise, explains Collins. “We want to avoid, in the future, a situation of Cry-Loup wolf where the public gets used to this threat he thinks:” Oh, that never happens “.”
