Charts that show the “reciprocal prices” that the United States invoices that other countries are exhibited at the James Brady Information Salle of the White House Press on April 2, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Alex Wong | Getty images
US President Donald Trump Wednesday, thrown the “reciprocal rate“The rates of more than 180 countries and territories will face its new trade policy.
The announcement dropped the actions and encouraged investors to take refuge in the assets perceived as being safe.
Analysts generally had a pessimistic vision of the announcement, some even predicting an increased risk of recession for the United States
Here is a compilation of the reactions of experts and analysts:
Tai Hui, chief strategist of the Apac market, JP Morgan Asset Management
“Today's announcement could potentially increase American average rate rates at the levels that we have not seen since the beginning of the 20th century. If these prices have persisted, they could have a materially impact on inflation, because American manufacturing has trouble accelerating capacities and supply chains have repercussions to consumers. For example, semiconductors advanced to Taiwan Absorb the price costs without viable substitutes.
“The scale of these prices raises concerns concerning growth risks. American consumers can reduce spending due to more expensive imports, and companies could delay capital expenditure in an uncertainty about the complete impact of prices and potential reprisals of business partners.”
David Rosenberg, president and founder of Rosenberg Research
“There are no winners in a world trade war. And when people have to realize, when you hear this trap to applaud on how consumers in the United States will not carry large.
And a large part of this will be sent to the consumer, so we are in several months of a very significant price shock for the American household sector. “”
Anthony Raza, multi-active strategy manager, UOB asset management
“They found the most extreme numbers that we can't even understand. How do they come?
David Roche, strategist, quantum strategy
“These prices are not transient. They are at the heart of President Trump's beliefs. They mark the transition from globalization to isolationist, nationalist policies – and not only for the economy. The process will last for several years and will be felt for decades. There will be spills in multiple political fields such as geopolitics.
Currently, expect reprisals, not negotiations by the EU (targeting American services) and China (by focusing on American strategic and commercial interests). Rose prices will be cement the bear market. They will cause global stagflation as well as the recession of the United States and the EU. “”
Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist, AMP
“Our approximate calculation is that the 2ND The announcement in April will take the average American rate rate at levels higher than the 1930s after the Smoot / Hawley prices This will in turn add to the risk of an American recession – via a helping hand for confidence and disturbances of the supply chain – and a bigger global growth stroke.
“The risk of an American recession is probably now about 40% and global growth could be driven around 2% (against around 3% currently) depending on the importance of reprisals and the way countries like China react with the political stimulus.”
Tom Kenny, senior international economist, Anz
“The American reciprocal prices announced today are worse than expected. The effective rate rate on imports of American goods is likely to go to the range of 20 to 25%, the highest since the early 1900s.
Yields on the bonds indexed by inflation were higher and the shares were sold after the announcement, suggesting that the market thinks that these prices will harm growth and add to inflation. The price of the market for the rate of federal funds indicates the reductions of the federal reserve to come earlier. “”
