US President Donald Trump holds a painting next to the US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick while Trump pronounces remarks on the prices in the Garden Rose at the White House in Washington, DC, on April 2, 2025.
Carlos Barria | Reuters
The pricing policy described by the president Donald Trump On Wednesday, it seems that it increases the level of American import duties to the highest in more than 100 years.
The United States has introduced a Reference rate 10% On imports, but also rates of countries in high countries on certain major trade partners, including China. Country prices per country seem to be linked to Trade deficit The United States has with each trading partner.
Sarah Bianchi, chief strategist of Evercore ISI of international political affairs and public policies, said in a note on Wednesday to customers that new policies have put the actual rate rate higher than around 20% set in the 1930s Smoot-hawley price actwhich is often quoted by economists as a factor contributing to the great depression.
“A very hard and more downward announcement that pushes the rate of overall average price in the United States at 24%, the highest in more than 100 years – and has probably directed up to 27% once 232 are finished,” wrote Bianchi. The “232S” is a reference to certain sectoral prices which could be added soon.
Michael Feroli, JPMorgan American economist, Michael Feroli, has obtained similar results when his team criticized the figures.
“According to our calculations, this takes the average effective rate rate of what had been before today's announcement at around 10% to just over 23%. … A White House official mentioned that other prices in article 232 (for example, flea, pharmacy, critical minerals) are still in progress, so that the average effective rate can go even higher.
An estimate of the fitch dimensions was in the same range, with a report indicating that the rate rate would strike The highest level since 1909.
Trump on Wednesday referred to the Smoot-Hawley act in his Rose Garden remarks. The president said that the question was not the prices imposed in 1930, but the previous decision to remove the higher rates that existed earlier in the 20th century.
“It would never have happened if they had stayed in pricing policy. It would have been a very different story. They tried to bring prices to save our country, but it was gone. It was too late,” said Trump.
The complete economic impact of new prices will probably depend on the duration of their place and if other countries retaliates. Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the country's prices could drop if these business partners were changing their policies.
The world JPMorgan economist, Nora Szentivanyi, warned that Trump's prices were likely to Push the American and global economy in a recession This year, if they are supported.
