The 2028 presidential race
The result of the elections in the Philippines next week will undoubtedly have short and medium term implications for the country's policy.
First, if the nine candidates of the Senate supported by the victory of the Marcos administration, they would expand its block of supporters in the room. This block can then vote to condemn Sara Duterte when her dismissal case moves to a trial in the Senate.
If it was condemned, it would be prohibited to present itself to the presidency in 2028. But it is not certain that two thirds of the senators would vote to condemn – the threshold necessary for the indictment. Some independent pro-marcos and senators may be wary of annoying the faithful supporters of Duterte.
If Sara Duterte is acquitted, that would probably only stimulate her candidacy for the presidency.
The House before the ICC trial will hold a hearing in September which will be closely monitored by the pro and anti-duly less forces in the Philippines. On May 8, the Chamber rejected a petition filed by Duterte's defense team to excuse two judges on alleged allegedly.
His faithful supporters will probably increase their attacks on the ICC, the victims of the Duterte drug war and the Marcos administration by the use of false news and disinformation as the trial progresses.
If Duterte is sentenced by the court before the 2028 elections, it will certainly be used as a campaign problem by both parties. And that will only increase polarization in the Philippines.
Noel Morada is from the University of Chulalongkorn in Bangkok, Thailand, where he is a guest teacher at the Nelson Mandela Center and researcher at Asia Pacific Center for the responsibility of protecting. This commentary appeared for the first time On the conversation.
