6 daring predictions for the rest of the MLB 2025 season: Pete Alonso wins the triple crown, Riley Greene at the head of judge Aaron for MVP and more

They say you cannot predict baseball. But if you are going to try, why not go big?

We asked six writers from MLB.com and Yahoo Sports to dig deeply and to offer a daring prediction for the rest of this season. Are these predictions that are likely materialize? No, probably not.

But if one of them does, you can say that you read them first here.

The statistics cited below enter Thursday.

Pete Alonso will win the NL Triple Crown

By Jordan Shusterman, Yahoo Sports

Alonso was always going to be an intriguing character this season, whatever he played. His long free agency which led to a Short -term agreement to stay in Queens was one of the largest scenarios of winter, and this prepared the land in Alonso to prove that all the uninteresting teams or validate their concerns by continuing with the wrong direction.

So far, Alonso has more than restoring his offensive references after what could have been his worst season in 2024 – he looks better than ever. This is the most obvious in its average of hitters from top to bottom (.328!), Which is the key ingredient of this daring prediction. The idea that Alonon could direct the league in the circuits and / or RBI is hardly an ambitious proclamation and seems very plausible at this stage. But entering this season, it would have been eccentric to expect a career striker .249 rivaling for a title of tandem striker with his usual production of power. However, we are there!

What is most convincing in the sensational beginning of Alonso of the year is that sighted surface level statistics are fully supported by a considerable improvement in its underlying measures. Alonso has always struck the ball exceptionally strong, but now he establishes much more contacts, with Whiff's prices (21.6%) and withdrawal (17.2%) while walking at a better 15.4%clip in career. With Elite Power already in place, this increase in basic capacity has allowed a huge peak in its overall production, which has Alonso In the thickness of the MVP NL race – No thin feat that considers that he has Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto as teammates.

Athletics will win the Al West

By Mike Petriello, mlb.com

Ok, listen to me: it's great three -way race We thought we would have between Houston, Texas and Seattle? This does not happen. Rangers are already entirely fire Panic mode; The astros .500 have now Yordan Alvarez health workers; The navies are surprisingly well, but how long would we bet on Jorge Polanco who strikes .700? The fact is that the door of the division title is open.

At this point, the 20-18 did much more than hanging on. They make it a race, which is an incredible statement since Mason Miller (4.61 ERA) and Lawrence Butler (103 OPS +), two players who are supposed to be their stars, did not go exactly what you expected. We thought that adding Luis Severino's off -season would help (he did); We assumed that Brent Rooker would provide power (he did it); We… ok, we did not think that Tyler Soderstrom would do his best impression as Mark McGwire or that Justin Sterner would pretend that he is Dennis Eckersley. But these moments count, just like the victories they helped to feed.

So imagine, if Miller and Butler go up. If Jeffrey Springs (4.81 ERA) is more like the starter of the middle of the rotation, he was with Tampa Bay. If Jacob Wilson is really “Luis Arraez, but can play a solid stop”. If the end of the astros reign has really arrived. Fangraphs give 5% a chance to succeed. It is not impossible.

Will Shohei Ohtani be launched in the playoffs? Will the Orioles even be in the playoffs?

(Taylor Wilhelm / Yahoo Sports)

Shohei Ohtani will not come to the playoffs

By Jake Mintz, Yahoo Sports

Ohtani has become a familiar name because he could do both. No player, in more than a century of baseball history, had never launched and struck simultaneously, and even less at a level of stars. It was the SCUTK. The singular capacity with two lanes of Ohtani earned him the status of superstar, two MVP prices and a contract of $ 700 million.

Then, in September 2023, an injury changed everything. Ohtani, then an angel, underwent reconstructive surgery of the elbow, the second procedure of his career. And with his pending life, Ohtani has found a way to raise his offensive game to an even higher stratosphere. Now it is M. 50-50, a unicorn at power speed that won its third MVP prize Based on the prowess of her bats and legs.

Ohtani is, undoubtedly, a thickness among the first three in sport. This reality puts his employer in a delicate situation. As October approach and Ohtani continues to pass Its pitch recoveryDodgers will face a problem with the first world. Because here is the cold and hard truth: a complete gas return to pitch increases the probability of an injury that could put Ohtani's touch for a significant section. If such a problem arises in October, it would leave the programming of it without vigor at the worst time possible.

And so there is a convincing argument according to which the use of Ohtani, the launcher, in the playoffs represents an unnecessary risk – a risk that, in the worst case, can flow this mastodon of the dodgers. Because if the departure staff of the was decimated by injuries in 2025, it remains likely that the Dodgers enter in October with enough healthy and competent beginners.

So, while everyone – with the exception of opposing strikers – would like to see Ohtani on the bump in playoffs, what people want and what is optimal for their team could be two very different things.

Riley Greene will win the AL MVP Prize

By Anthony Castrovince, mlb.com

The title here should probably be “Aaron Judge will not be the MVP Al” because, let's face it, at the moment, the vote would look like this:

The little girl from the judge's newborn

Anyway, last winter, in my annual Choice of too early awards (In which I generally try to move away from repeated winners such as Judge), I went with Greene, the voltiseur des Tigers, which means that I am contractually linked to this choice, for the better or for the worst (please ignore that my choice NL Cy Young is already made for the year). The judge is completely Rapper the field nowBut that was also the case around this time in 2023, before dealing with a injury at the foot of mid-season. I do not wish him injuries (not even to help me come across a correct prediction for once), but that is part of his career profile, unfortunately. Foreign things have happened.

Anyway, if nothing else, here is an opportunity to inflate Greene, aged 24, who rebounded after a slow start to publish the production of players of last week. The improved swing decisions he showed last year did not fully have done this season, but he rocked terrible sagging at the start of the season and is Back to be the best player of every day In a tiger team that seems really ready to roar.

Or, you know, maybe the judge keeps making me and opposite launchers who look really bad.

Luis Torn will eliminate less than 20 times

By David Adler, mlb.com

Is it quite daring? Should I go for 15 stick withdrawals? Ten? After all, Arraez is the king not to withdraw, and this year, the first basic player in the paadres is somehow even less than usual. Rip out three KS this season – in 30 games and 131 plaques appearances. It is an absurd withdrawal rate of 2.3%. He is currently in rhythm to play 135 games, take 590 plates appearances … and finish with 14 stick withdrawals.

The last striker to qualify for the title of striker in a full season of 162 games – Arraez a won three in a rowBy the way – and hearing less than 20 times, the legend of the Padres, Tony Gwynn. Gwynn is the only striker in doing so in the past 30 years; He actually had five of these seasons less than 20 km during his career, the last of which came in 1998, when he had 18 ks in 505 plaques appearances.

It will be a difficult pace to maintain all season, even for Arraez. The padres star should even exceed his best seasons. The low -snack career for stick withdrawals in a full season is 29 years (last year), and in his three title seasons in the stick, he is on average 35 years old. To reduce its withdrawals to the stick, even this last piece, from 29 to 20 years old, is a major challenge. But if someone can do it, it's him. Remember, Arraz went to a Sequence without appearance of 141 plates without appearance Last year. He has not withdrawn more than three times in a month since June. And he is the spiritual successor of Gwynn in San Diego – the only player of the game today who could approach the temple of fame in the ability to contact.

Orioles will lose 90 games

By Russell Dorsey, Yahoo Sports

We are not yet at the Memorial Day, and it already looks like This season of Orioles is starting to end. Things did not go well to Baltimore in what was to be a great season for this organization after winning more than 90 games and has made the playoffs in 2023 and 24. And so far in 2025, the weakness of the Orioles remains the same: the start of pitch.

After the departure of Corbin Burnes in free agency, the Orioles did very little to improve their rotation, and this is seen. Baltimore is currently ranking 28th in MLB in the starter era (5.77). Of the six teams that finished 25th or worse in the starter era last season, five lost at least 90 games. The other was Arizona Diamondbacks, which had the best attack in the league, which the Orioles definitely did not. It looks like the Baltimore window is starting to close, which is difficult to believe.

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