Meanwhile, Ukraine has concluded an agreement which gives the United States preferential access to new Ukrainian mineral offers and which finances investment in the reconstruction of the country.
Since Trump's return to the White House, the greenback is down more than 9% against a basket of large currencies while investors are withdrawing from the possession of American assets.
Some experts warn against the association of the dollar force with its reference status. However, historically, Dollar Holdings was linked to security alliances and military ties with Washington.
Transactions with the US dollar continue to dominate all the FX market segments, said Pyshnyi, but the share of transactions labeled in euros has increased in most segments, although “so far, moderately”. He did not develop.
Ukraine launched Hryvnia in 1996, and over the decades, it used the dollar as a reference currency.
Immediately after the invasion of Russia in February 2022, the central bank imposed capital checks and set the Hryvnia at an official rate of approximately 29 in the United States. dollar. Ukraine was forced to devalue later due to an accumulation of tax imbalances.
In October 2023, the central bank went from a firm PEG to a managed exchange rate regime which uses the US dollar as a reference, the gauge to measure FX interventions and for the smoothing of fluctuations in the exchange rate.
EU membership interviews for Ukraine and Moldova
The EU opened the talks with Ukraine and Moldova almost a year ago, although a long and difficult road is before being able to reach the block. The president of the EU, Ursula, von der Leyen, said in February that Ukraine could be found by 2030, provided that he continued to make reforms of his political and judicial system at the current rate.
In preparation, Moldova changed its reference currency for the Moldavan lei at the Euro in the dollar on January 2.
A renewal of consumer investment and activity thanks to closer links with Europe and economic standardization would help economic growth to accelerate slightly over the next two years to 3.7 to 3.9%, Pyshnyi said, although a large part of the economic trajectory depends on the way the conflict develops.
“A rapid ending to war would clearly be a positive scenario with good economic results if they were to integrate security guarantees for Ukraine,” said Pyshnyi.
“Nevertheless, it is crucial to recognize that the economic benefits of the end of the war would probably take time to materialize.”
Ukraine is based on external funding to help finance the war effort. Pyshnyi said it expected $ 55 billion this year, which would not only cover the budget deficit, but that it would also be used to reserve a public finance reserve for the years to come, when the aid volumes had to decrease.
“We plan that Ukraine will receive around $ 17 billion in 2026 and $ 15 billion in 2027,” said Pyshnyi.
