Central Asia and Caucasus are positioning to position itself as vital transit poles as global trade routes change.
Since the start of the Moscow War in Ukraine at the beginning of 2022, Europe has been looking for alternative trade routes that have been bypassing Russia.
This research paid unprecedented attention to the strategic location of Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Countries such as Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Turkmenistan are massively investing in railways, highways and ports to attract east-west trade flows.
However, while some of their ambitions align, others compete – creating a dynamic mixture of collaboration, competition and geopolitical tension.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan has been positioning itself as the Eurasian transit center for more than a decade, which is why it is now at the top of the central Asian transit game. Some 85% of the goods traveling from China to the EU arrive there via Kazakhstan.
The country's position is reinforced by the Transcaspian International Transport Route (Titr), also known as the average corridor, whose importance has increased since 2022.
In 2024, the volume of goods transported along the Titr increased by 20%, reaching 3.3 million tonnes.
Kazakhstan also has other corridors, including the European-Caucasus-Asia transport corridor (Traceca), which also bypasses Russia.
Kazakhstan is one step ahead of some of its neighbors, who are only starting to build railways and attract investments.
Turkmenistan
Due to the policies of neutrality and insulation of Turkmenistan, the country has rarely participated in the affairs of Central Asia before.
However, a change in its leadership has changed the approach of the country to international politics, and now he actively tries to establish various transport corridors.
Before the recent EU-Central Asia summit, many EU officials visited Turkmenistan to discuss the creation of a new branch of the middle corridor.
The country also writes an agreement with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Romania to establish the path of international transport of the Caspian-Black Sea.
In addition, Turkmenistan revitalizes the lapis Lazuli corridor, which begins in Afghanistan and reaches Turkey – and potentially in Europe – through Azerbaijan and Georgia.
ADVERTISEMENTAnd like Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan can enjoy a port on the east coast of the Caspian Sea (Turkmenbashi).
The country must now fill the gaps in its infrastructure and develop policies and reforms in the public transport sector.
Uzbekistan
Like other nations in the region, Uzbekistan diversifies its transport corridors.
Uzbekistan is based on routes such as Titr, but it is actively promoting the China-Kirgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, whose construction should start in July 2025.
ADVERTISEMENTThis railroad is supposed to be connected to the new branch of the middle corridor passing by Turkmenistan, thus creating a means for the goods to move from China without entering Kazakhstan.
In addition, to reduce its dependence on Russia and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan establishes its own routes to Europe through Azerbaijan and Georgia, to Turkey through Iran and to India across Afghanistan and Pakistan.
To access all that the country needs Turkmenistan, which is unlikely to prevent Tashkent from doing so.
Kyrgyzistan and Tadjikistan
Kyrgyzistan and Tajikistan are in competition with regard to transit roads.
ADVERTISEMENTThe two share borders with China and want to create a path from China to Uzbekistan through their territory.
Kyrgyzstan is already working on the construction of the China-Kirgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which should help it get around Kazakhstan.
As Kyrgyzistan strongly depends on trade with Russia, it depends on Kazakhstan as a transit country.
Finding an alternative route through Uzbekistan and the Caspian Sea is supposed to decrease such dependence.
ADVERTISEMENTTadjikistan, on the other hand, is trying to use its proximity to Afghanistan and establishes a connection with the Persian Gulf.
Last year, the country signed a memorandum to promote links with the Iranian port of Chabahar.
Tadjikistan and Kyrgyzstan are a little late in the race for public transport roads, but their recent border agreement should release their hands and improve regional connectivity.
The Caucasus
In the race for transport roads, those who have ports on the Caspian Sea have the upper hand.
ADVERTISEMENTIn this sense, Azerbaijan holds the ultimate map, Baku being the only port on the west coast of the Caspian Sea.
The middle corridor, the North-South corridor, Traceca, the Caspienne-Noir maritime route and the lapis lazuli corridor-all go through Azerbaijan.
With Georgia, Azerbaijan forms a direct line from Central Asia to Europe.
The advantage of Georgia here is its two main ports of the Black Sea of Poti and Batumi and its border shared with Turkey. However, Iran, which also shares a border with Turkey, can divert part of the commercial flow.
ADVERTISEMENTThe position of Georgia can also be weakened if Azerbaijan and Armenia find a way to reconcile. Progress is slow in this department because the peace agreement has not yet been signed.
The nations cannot reach an agreement on a path between Azerbaijan and its exclave Nakhchian, separated by Armenian territory.
Armenia, sandwiched between Azerbaijan and its close Türkiye ally, depends strongly on Georgia for Trade with Russia.
Mongolia
Despite the vast territory of Mongolia, its unfavorable location between two even larger countries – China and Russia – considerably limits its transit capacity.
ADVERTISEMENTThe steppe corridor, which connects the only neighbors of Mongolia, is even less viable in the short term due to sanctions against Russia.
The next decade will determine the dominant roads of Eurasian trade. If political stability holds and infrastructure projects are completed, the average corridor could compete with the traditional transport networks of Russia – placing Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia at the heart of world trade.
