By Martin Petty
(Reuters) – Singapore organizes a parliamentary election on May 3, the first major test for the new Prime Minister Lawrence Wong while the action party of his people seeks to extend his uninterrupted rule of the city -state and to emerge with a stronger mandate.
How will it be played?
PAP is almost certain to win most of the seats in the elections because it has all the elections since the independence of Singapore in 1965, the candidates were presented in the 33 districts for 97 seats in Parliament.
With a good governance experience, attracting investments and guaranteeing the stability of the economy linked to trade, the PAP remains the dominant force in Singapore policy with resources that eclipse its opponents and a great adherence to parties. Of the total of 211 candidates in the elections, 46% are PAP.
No opposition party can take up a challenge alone, with the greatest rival of the PAP, the workers' party, operating only in a quarter of the races, which means that the maximum that it can win is 26 seats. The third of the previous parliament, the Progress Party of Singapore, disputes only 13 seats.
What's at stake?
Despite the chances massively in favor of the PAP and defeated very improbable, the election has the potential to modify the dynamics of Singapore's policy in the years to come and to create a path to greater political plurality.
Regular opposition gains during the recent elections were largely interpreted as signs of disenchantment with the monopoly of the ruling party and a desire among certain Singaporeans, in particular younger voters, for a more diversified policy, with votes and alternative ideas, a more in -depth examination and a more robust debate.
The share of the PAP of the popular vote fell to 61% in 2020, against 70% in 2015. If he saw another drop and the opposition worker party is based on its 10 record seats in 2020, it could be interpreted as a sign that after six decades in charge, the mandate and the adhesion of the PAP on power is slowly weakening.
The main minister Lee Hsien Loong, who was Prime Minister for two decades, warned a PAP rally on Sunday that opposition siege gains “would weaken the capacity of the ruling party to govern” and would result in the loss of experienced ministers.
What are the main problems?
The opposition targets the PAP on life costs and the availability of housing, a lasting problem in Singapore, among the most expensive cities in the world.
PAP sought to go with a series of gifts in the February budget, including grocery coupons, tax discounts and cash documents. Wong has promised more if the Singapore economy undergoes collateral damage to global trade tensions, the recession possible.
Some opposition parties are also campaigning for more strict controls on foreign workers in well -paid jobs and free or reduced health care, a problem for the aging population of Singapore. Wong warned against “many tempting proposals” of opponents who could weaken public finances and harm investments and income.
What advantage has PAP?
Wong called the short -term elections on April 15, giving opponents for little preparation time. The unique Singapore model also works favorably for its party, with unique and multi-member districts, where teams of six candidates arise.
Unlike PAP, opposition parties find it difficult to recruit enough candidates for multi-members and high deposits of $ 13,500 S ($ 10,280) per candidate are dissuasive.
More than half of the constituencies are multi-members and the PAP already has five seats in the bag after a passenger in one of those when no opposition party has disputed.
Singapore also regularly revises the electoral divisions, to ostensibly reflect the changes of the population, which worked to the advantage of the PAP. He previously denied allegations of Gerrymandering.
What is considered a good PAP mandate?
The PAP looks closely at the share of popular vote, even if its worst performance of 60.1% in 2011 has always resulted in 93% of seats and is still considered a landslide in many democracies.
Some analysts say that a voting share of 60% to 65% would be good for Wong in his first election as Prime Minister.
“Everything that indicates a significant drop in the last elections would probably be attributed to the perception of voters of the weakening of confidence in the new leadership,” said Singapore national sociologist, Tan Ern Ser.
(Report by Martin Petty; additional report by Jun Yuan Yong; edition by Michael Perry)
