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The warnings of empty store shelves were in the headlines because several press reports indicate that The CEOs of the best retail stores in America told President Trump that a prolonged trade war would cause shortages.
When could it become a reality and what product categories would be struck first?
Treasury secretary Scott Bessent recently described a The trade war with China as “unbearable”.
Already, a decrease in manufacturing orders from China, and a song for reservations for Chinese freight ships and navigation in the United States, become the national supply chain Closer to a tilting point. But when the supply chain reaches the point of no return, while the orders currently interrupted must be replenished so that the retail supply chain is reconstructed?
Clothes and shoes are a key to watch -to -monitor consumer product. In 2024, imports from China represented around 37% of all imports of American clothes and around 58% of all imports of American shoes.
“These new prohibitive rate rates work as an import ban,” said Steve Lamar, president of the American Apparel and Footwear Association.
According to AAFA, in 2024, the average rate of imports of clothing and shoes from China was around 18.5%, but for many, it is much higher due to additional rights. “When you add 145%in addition to this, you get an average figure greater than 160%, but in some cases, the real rate exceeds 200%,” said Lamar.
Because such a large part of the clothes and shoes comes from China, the date of entry into force of the prices has given businesses few possibilities to move the supply. “They will soon be translated into shortages of products by canceled orders or that the goods are kept in warehouses until a trade agreement can be concluded,” said Lamar.
Companies expect many impacts, from Increase in consumer distrust pricesand orders for large tickets increased On the expectation of a sticker shock. Recent data from American shipments illustrate the rates attenuation measures that companies deploy to manage the delicate balance of supply and demand. A decline in Chinese imports was observed in Walmart, Ikea and Orders targets, according to Sonar data.
In decline in sales of Chinese goods visits us
But the risk of retail shortages will largely depend on the duration of the “unsustainable” rate level and the measure to which companies front download inventory At the beginning of 2025, based on Trump's threats. A The Minister of the Chinese government recently said“At present, there is absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the United States”
If the prices decrease and are considered to be more manageable to absorb, the production orders could resume and the expeditions could start again. But if the high prices are continuing, the expectations are that the American consumer will face more persistent shortages, especially since Chinese suppliers focus on other markets. If this happens, the American supply chain should then compete for manufacturing capacity.
The next months will provide essential information on the health of the supply chain, said Michael Salerno, vice-president of international banks at FNBO (First National Bank of Omaha), whose customers are from small to average.
“We are considering volumes of port containers in mid-May, June and July,” said Salerne. “We will examine the volume of containers and how long it will be seated there. It is too early to say it now.”
New maritime intelligence data shows a continuous increase in navigation canceled due to the cessation of ocean freight orders.
“Many of these virgin navigations have been announced with a preliminary warning very limited to sender,” said Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.
The canceled sails that have occurred for the first time on the commercial road in Asia-Nord-America on the west coast are now raised on the roads of Asia to the ports of the East Coast.
“For the east coast of American North Asia, there is now a major peak in virgin navigations for the week from May 5, which is quite extreme,” said Murphy.
In recent weeks, covering the end of April and early May, carriers have planned whitewashed ships equivalent to 35% to 42% of the planned capacity.
Low -margin and rapidly evolving goods disappear first
Experts in the supply chain say that low -end stores will be hardly affected by prices on low -cost imports and if they work under the inventory, it will be seen much faster.
“The American retail system is built on speed and scale,” said Casey Armstrong, CMO of Shipbob, a global platform for carrying out and supply chain. “When this stuttering engine – whether from prices, customs delays or supply constraints – it is the lowest and fastest goods that disappear first.”
Armstrong warned that the first signs of empty shelves would appear where the prices sensitive imports dominate the shelf – like toys, games and household products, in addition to clothes. “These are the carbon moods of a disturbed supply chain,” he said.
Armstrong thinks that children's toys and seasonal products, including back -to -school items, will first disappear due to shortened and prices time.
Fast fashion and clothes – bases, t -shirts, leggings, socks and children's clothing – would follow. “There is often a quick turnover on clothing, and thin margins mean a small stock of stamps,” said Armstrong.
The low -cost products and the supply of consumer electronics will be limited because even if many products in these categories are not “final in China”, their components are often, according to Armstrong. “In addition, many products are frequently refreshed (telephones, headphones, etc.). Some Amazon sellers and large-area stores can have cheaper electronics and accessories gaps,” he said.
But even if the overall orders and navigations from China decrease, it is not a straight line to a sharp drop in the activities of each retailer. Home Depot has recently increased orders in the United States of Chinese suppliers, according to Import Genius.
The inventories of large -scale retailers are not the only stages that may experience stock pain depending on the gravity and duration of a trade war, with Armstrong while waiting Dropshippers (companies or individuals operating online without keeping stocks) and those that count on the China's tax exemption minimis Also assigned from May 2 when this commercial escape is closed.
Jonathan Gold, vice-president of the supply chain and customs policy for the National Retail Federation, said according to its last Global Port Tracker Report, mitigation measures such as cargo frontage led to higher import levels, so that more inventory was in front of prices, but he warned that the report also indicated that freight volumes would decrease considerably due to orders canceled or delayed due to prices.
Gold warned that the least, consumers should be prepared for less inventory and less choice, and an increase in prices, especially among small retailers.
“The effects will probably become tangible in the coming months, the expeditions that are subject to higher prices are starting to arrive and make its way through retail stocks,” said Gold. “Uncertainty around prices is difficult for businesses, especially for small businesses that are currently preparing for critical orders for winter holidays.”
