A few weeks after the first wave of Washington pricing announcements, international trade data indicates a moderate perspective, with key indicators reporting a serious risk of embezzlement for Europe due to trade disruption between the United States and China, according to the World Trade Organization (WCO).
The “global commercial prospects” of the WTO published on Wednesday revealed that Chinese and American drop -off economies would lead to a diver of 81% of the goods trade between the two countries in 2025 and 91% without the recent exemptions granted by the American administration for products such as smartphones.
Consequently, the report provides for a 6% increase in Chinese exports to Europe. But Europe, also struck by American prices, will also seek other markets for its exports, says the WTO.
“This is a double -meaning street, there will also be European exports diverted to other economies,” said the chief economist of the WTO, Ralph OSSA, adding: “Think of the high prices that are in place on motor vehicles for example. It is a way through which these tensions could potentially spread.”
The United States has imposed 25% tariffs on EU cars, steel and aluminum. The 10% American rates also apply to other EU exports.
Tensions between China and the United States have increased with Chinese exports to the United States with 145% tariffs and American products to China faced with 125% tariffs.
More generally, exports of Chinese goods should increase by 4% to 9% in all regions outside of North America, according to the report forecasts.
The lessons will have to be learned, the director general of WTO NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA said about world trade disturbances when it announced a decrease by 0.2% The volume of the global trade in goods in 2025, which represents nearly three percentage points lower than expected.
“One of the clearest lessons in the COVVI-19 crisis is the importance of diversifying sources of supply.
The report indicates that decoupling between American and Chinese economies will contribute to a large fragmentation of the global economy according to geopolitical lines in two isolated blocks.
It will also have an impact on world GDP. “Our estimate is that global GDP would be reduced by almost 7% in the long term,” said Okonjo-Iweala.
