Tourists try to cool off in Rome, where a sharp increase in heat deaths is expected by 2099
Massimo Valicchia / Nurphoto via Getty Images
There will be 2.3 million deaths related to additional temperature in the main European cities by 2099 without more action to limit warming and adapt to it, according to the researchers. However, in the cities of the cold northern countries like the United Kingdom, there will be less deaths linked to temperature during this period, because the drop in deaths per cold will be greater than the increase in heat deaths.
“We estimate a slight clear decrease, but it is very low compared to the great increase we could see in the Mediterranean region,” explains Stone at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
The Masselot team began by examining epidemiological studies on how death increases during periods of extreme heat or extreme cold. His team then used these statistical links to estimate how the number of excessive deaths would change in the next century In various warming scenarios.
The study examines 850 cities – which houses 40% of the European population – but not in rural areas. Indeed, the statistical links are stronger where many people live in a small area and are exposed roughly to the same conditions.
If cities do not adapt, the net effect of climate change increases exponentially with greater warming. In a scenario similar to our current course, the number of excess temperature deaths would increase by 50%, compared to 91 per 100,000 people per year in recent years to 136 per 100,000 people per year by 2099.
Adaptive measures As the wider use of air conditioning and planting more trees in city centers would reduce these figures, explains Masselot, but to considerably reduce the vulnerability of a heat to heat, substantial adaptive measures are needed. “This is much more than what we have already observed in many countries around the world.”
Team estimates are based on average daily temperatures in warming scenarios, and they do not include the possibility of much more extreme heat waves. “We have found that this is generally good enough to be able to link deaths to temperature,” explains Masselot.
This is the most complete study of the genre so far, he said. It includes more countries and suggests for the first time that even France and Germany will have more death -related deaths as the continent warms up.
The rise in temperatures will have a wide range of effects on people, from their health to their productivity, he said. “Mortality is only part of history.”
