The impression of an artist of what the asteroid 2024 YR4 could resemble the approach of the earth in December 2032
Nasa
NASA lowered the risk of asteroid 2024 years hitting the earth in 2032 to 1.5%, or 1 of 67down a top of a 1 of 32 Chance, who was the highest collision rating.
Astronomers discovered that the asteroid was in a barrel to the earth in December And since then. As they collect more data on the precise orbit of the asteroid, astronomers have been able to calculate the probability that it strikes the earth with greater precision. It is believed that the asteroid is between 40 and 90 meters wide and has the potential to release the energy equivalent to 7.7 TNT megatons if it strikes the earth – enough to destroy a city.
According to NASA, the chances of collision in 2032 have increased by a chance of 1 in 83 since its first identity. It has since passed to 1 out of 67, to 1 in 53, to 1 in 43, to 1 in 38, to 1 in 32 and now turning to 1 out of 67. The European space agency has slightly different ratings, currently giving the asteroid a chance of collision of 1.38%. These changes reflect our growing understanding of the asteroid path, rather than necessarily that it is more or less likely to hit the earth.
But we lack time to predict the risk of the asteroid. One problem is that 2024 YR4 will fly behind the sun in April, placing it out of the sight of most earth -based telescopes. Which limits the way astronomers can refine their predictions, says Hugh Lewis At the University of Southampton, in the United Kingdom. “All the observations we can make from here and when it is out of sight will obviously help us to refine the orbit and make better forecasts.
Once the asteroid will fly, it is unlikely that we get more information before it returned in 2028. However, astronomers could comb through past data to discover previously neglected observations of the asteroid, which would help refine its trajectory. This process is already undertaken by global space agencies, explains Lewis.
Crucial information on the size and composition of the asteroid will be hoped, collected by the James Webb space telescope in the coming months, explains Lewis. This will help us understand if the asteroid could cross the atmosphere of the earth intact and what is the size of an explosion that it could cause if it has an impact.
“This will help us to determine what we have to do on this subject, because if it is a stony asteroid, it is very different from a high proportion of iron asteroids,” explains Lewis. An asteroid rich in iron would be worse, because a stony asteroid would potentially break during the impact. “The mass makes a huge difference in terms of energy and whether or not the atmosphere has an effect on this subject.”
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