In the middle of A week of horrible forest fires In Los Angeles, government agencies in the United States and worldwide have confirmed on Friday that 2024 was the hottest year on the planet since the start of files in 1880.
This is the 11th consecutive year in which a new heat record has been established, said NASA administrator Bill Nelson.
“Between record temperatures and forest fires currently threatens our centers and workforce in California, it has never been so important to understand our changing planet,” said Nelson.
Firefighters on Friday were fighting to protect NASA jet propulsion laboratory at La Cañada Flintridge du Fire Eaton, which has burned 13,690 acres and around 5,000 buildings so far.
Research has shown that global warming contributes significantly larger and more intense forest fires in the west of the United States in recent years, and for Longer fire seasons.
Devastating fires in southern California broke out after a sudden passage of wet weather at an extremely dry time, a boost that scientists say increased risks of forest fires. Research has shown that these quick -drying and dry -wet oscillations, which can worsen forest fires, floods and other dangers, are More and more frequent and intense Due to the increase in global temperatures.
Extreme meteorological events in 2024 included Hurricane Helene in the south-east of the United States, the devastating floods in Valence, Spain and a deadly heat wave in Mexico so intense that The monkeys fell dead from the treesNoted Russell Vose, head of the supervisory and evaluation branch of the NOAA environmental information centers.
“We are not saying that these things were caused by changes in the climate of the earth,” said Vose. But as the warmer air contains more humidity, higher temperatures “could have exacerbated certain events this year”.
Last year's data also noted a step towards a major climate threshold. Maintaining the average overall surface temperature of the increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels has long been considered to avoid many of the most painful climatic impacts.
The NOAA fixed the overall average surface temperature from 2024 to 1.46 degrees C above its pre-industrial base, and NASA measurements increased to 1.47 degrees C. In 2023NASA said the temperature was 1.36 degrees C higher than the basic line.
Given the margin of error in their measurements, “which comfortably puts the Noaa and NASA models in the possibility that the actual number is 1.5 degrees,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in NASA.
The calculations of other organizations have adopted the brand of 1.5 degrees more clearly.
Berkeley Earth And the European Union Copernic climate change service Both said the planet warmed up to just over 1.6 degrees C above pre-industrial times in 2024. The United Nations World Meteorological Organization said that the increase was 1.55 degrees C And the United Kingdom puts Office, the country's weather service, has measured an increase in 1.53 degrees C.
Although 2024 probably marks the first calendar year during which the average temperature exceeded the 1.5 degree threshold, this does not mean that the land has adopted the crucial objective set in the Paris Agreement, said Vose.
This describes “a sustained increase and several decades of 1.5 degrees”, something that should not happen before the 2030s or 2040s, scientists noted.
“For a long time, global changes in average temperature were a little esoteric – no one lives in the world average,” said Schmidt. “But the signal is now so large that you don't only see it worldwide … you see it locally.”
“It's now quite personal,” he said.
The oceans, which store 90% of the excess heat of the planet, have also recorded their highest average temperature since The files began in 1955.
The Arctic has seen the most warming, which is worrying because the region is home to large amounts of ice that should melt and raise sea level, said Schmidt.
Temperatures are up 3 to 3.5 times faster than the global world average, he added.
The only place where average surface temperatures have cooled is the area immediately around Antarctica, and this is probably due to the cast iron water of the glacial caps, Schmidt said.
A year ago, the NOAA predicted that there was only one chance in 3 that 2024 broke the record set in 2023, said Vose. Then, every month from January to July established a new summit, and August was equality. As a result, Friday's declaration was not surprising.
The longer term trends are not better.
“We plan that future global warming as long as we make greenhouse gases,” said Schmidt. “This is something that does not bring us any joy to tell people, but unfortunately, that is.”
Staff writer Ian James contributed to this report.
